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A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India

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  • Batini, Nicoletta

    (IMF and University of Surrey)

  • Gabriel, Vasco

    (University of Surrey)

  • Levine, Paul

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

We first develop a two-bloc model of an emerging open economy interacting with the rest of the world calibrated using Indian and US data. The model features a financial accelerator and is suitable for examining the effects of financial stress on the real economy. Three variants of the model are highlighted with increasing degrees of financial frictions. The model is used to compare two monetary interest rate regimes: domestic Inflation targeting with a floating exchange rate (FLEX(D)) and a managed exchange rate (MEX). Both rules are characterized as a Taylor-type interest rate rules. MEX involves a nominal exchange rate target in the rule and a constraint on its volatility. We find that the imposition of a low exchange rate volatility is only achieved at a significant welfare loss if the policymaker is restricted to a simple domestic inflation plus exchange rate targeting rule. If on the other hand the policymaker can implement a complex optimal rule then an almost fixed exchange rate can be achieved at a relatively small welfare cost. This finding suggests that future research should examine alternative simple rules that mimic the fully optimal rule more closely.

Suggested Citation

  • Batini, Nicoletta & Gabriel, Vasco & Levine, Paul, 2010. "A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India," Working Papers 10/70, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:10/70 Note: Working Paper 70, 2010
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    Cited by:

    1. Ano Sujithan, Kuhanathan, 2014. "Le système financier indien à l'épreuve de la crise," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/14810 edited by Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi, March.
    2. Adnan Haider & Musleh-ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," SBP Working Paper Series 65, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    3. Sudipto Mundle & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Surajit Das, 2010. "Fiscal Consolidation with High Growth : A Policy Simulation Model for India," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23070, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, pages 609-681.
    5. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    6. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
    7. Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a DSGE Model of India," Working Papers 11/96, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    8. Graham Bird & Alex Mandilaras, 2010. "Revisiting Mrs. Machlup's wardrobe: the accumulation of international reserves, 1992-2001," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 467-471.
    9. Mundle, Sudipto & Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Das, Surajit, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2657-2668.
    10. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    11. Vasco Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2010. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1210, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    12. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2016. "Inflationary effects of monetary policies in newly industrialized economies with cross-sectoral labor and capital immobility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 151-167.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; Indian economy; Monetary interest rate rules; Floating versus managed exchange rate; Financial frictions;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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