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Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: a role for a monopolistic banking sector

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  • Federico S. Mandelman

Abstract

Starting from a variant of the New Keynesian model for a small open economy, I extend the standard credit channel framework to show that the presence of imperfect competition in the banking system propagates external shocks and amplifies the business cycle. This novel modeling of the banking system captures various well-documented facts in developing economies. I show that strategic limit pricing, aimed at protecting retail niches from potential competitors, generates countercyclical bank markups. Markup increments, as a consequence of sudden capital outflows, end up increasing borrowing costs for firms as well as damaging the financial position of firms? balance sheets. The recognition of monopoly power in banking allows the model to account for the relatively high investment volatility registered in emerging countries, even in the presence of debt that is fully denominated in local currency and flexible exchange rates.

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  • Federico S. Mandelman, 2006. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: a role for a monopolistic banking sector," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-17
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    3. Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2017. "Banking and Financial Participation Reforms, Labor Markets, and Financial Shocks," MPRA Paper 88697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2017. "Financial frictions and policy cooperation: A case with monopolistic banking and staggered loan contracts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 19-43.
    5. Xue, Wenjun & Zhang, Liwen, 2019. "Revisiting the asymmetric effects of bank credit on the business cycle: A panel quantile regression approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. de Blas, Beatriz & Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2013. "All banks great, small, and global: Loan pricing and foreign competition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 4-24.
    7. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of interstate U.S. banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 171-187.
    8. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Olivero, Maria Pia, 2020. "Lending relationships and labor market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Dean Corbae & Pablo D’Erasmo, 2015. "Foreign Competition and Banking Industry Dynamics: An Application to Mexico," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 830-867, November.
    10. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
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    12. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2011. "Real exchange rate dynamics revisited: A case with financial market imperfections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1562-1589.
    13. Beatriz de Blas & Katheryn Russ, 2010. "FDI in the Banking Sector," Working Papers 108, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    14. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2014/194, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2016. "External shocks and exchange rate regimes in Southeast Asia: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 365-382.
    16. Maria Pia Olivero, 2019. "Fiscal policy and credit spreads: Evidence from a SVAR," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1393-1403.

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