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Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: a role for a monopolistic banking sector

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  • Federico S. Mandelman

Abstract

Starting from a variant of the New Keynesian model for a small open economy, I extend the standard credit channel framework to show that the presence of imperfect competition in the banking system propagates external shocks and amplifies the business cycle. This novel modeling of the banking system captures various well-documented facts in developing economies. I show that strategic limit pricing, aimed at protecting retail niches from potential competitors, generates countercyclical bank markups. Markup increments, as a consequence of sudden capital outflows, end up increasing borrowing costs for firms as well as damaging the financial position of firms’ balance sheets. The recognition of monopoly power in banking allows the model to account for the relatively high investment volatility registered in emerging countries, even in the presence of debt that is fully denominated in local currency and flexible exchange rates.

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  • Federico S. Mandelman, 2006. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: a role for a monopolistic banking sector," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-17
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    2. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of interstate U.S. banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 171-187.
    3. Dean Corbae & Pablo D’Erasmo, 2015. "Foreign Competition and Banking Industry Dynamics: An Application to Mexico," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 830-867, November.
    4. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2009. "Financial Stability in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2017. "Financial frictions and policy cooperation: A case with monopolistic banking and staggered loan contracts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 19-43.
    6. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2011. "Real exchange rate dynamics revisited: A case with financial market imperfections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1562-1589.
    7. Franziska Bremus & Claudia Buch & Katheryn Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," NBER Working Papers 19093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Beatriz de Blas & Katheryn Russ, 2010. "FDI in the Banking Sector," Working Papers 108, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    9. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 14/194, International Monetary Fund.
    10. de Blas, Beatriz & Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2013. "All banks great, small, and global: Loan pricing and foreign competition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 4-24.
    11. Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2016. "External shocks and exchange rate regimes in Southeast Asia: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 365-382.

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