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An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy

We develop a closed-economy DSGE model of the Indian economy and estimate it by Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods using Dynare. We build up in stages to a model with a number of features important for emerging economies in general and the Indian economy in particular: a large proportion of credit-constrained consumers, a financial accelerator facing domestic firms seeking to finance their investment, and an informal sector. The simulation properties of the estimated model are examined under a generalized inflation targeting Taylor-type interest rate rule with forward and backward-looking components. We find that, in terms of model posterior probabilities and standard moments criteria, inclusion of the above financial frictions and an informal sector significantly improves the model fit.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 29/2010.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:29/2010
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Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 072000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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  9. Andrle, Michal, 2008. "The Role of Trends and Detrending in DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 13289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2010. "The econometrics of DSGE models," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 3-49, March.
  11. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Vasco Gabriel & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2008. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a `Calvo-type' rule," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0508, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  13. Nicoletta Batini & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "A Floating versus Managed Exchange Rate Regime in a DSGE Model of India," NIPE Working Papers 31/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  14. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models," Working Paper Series 2005-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  16. Simon Gilchrist, 2003. "Financial Markets and Financial Leverage in a Two-Country World-Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 228, Central Bank of Chile.
  17. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia, 2007. "Estimating DSGE Models under Partial Information," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1607, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  18. Vasco Cúrdia, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Sudden Stops," International Finance 0510025, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005.
  19. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  20. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, Juan, 2004. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 153-187, November.
  22. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Nicoletta Batini, 2009. "“Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economyâ€," IMF Working Papers 09/22, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Codrina Rada, 2009. "Formal and Informal Sectors in China and India: An Accounting-Based Approach," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2009_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  24. John Geweke, 1999. "Computational Experiments and Reality," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 401, Society for Computational Economics.
  25. Cook, David, 2004. "Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1155-1181, September.
  26. Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  27. David N. DeJong & Chetan Dave, 2007. "Implementing Nonlinear Appoximations Empirically, from Structural Macroeconometrics
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    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  28. Codrina Rada, 2010. "Formal And Informal Sectors In China And India," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 129-153.
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