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An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy

We develop a closed-economy DSGE model of the Indian economy and estimate it by Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods using Dynare. We build up in stages to a model with a number of features important for emerging economies in general and the Indian economy in particular: a large proportion of credit-constrained consumers, a financial accelerator facing domestic firms seeking to finance their investment, and an informal sector. The simulation properties of the estimated model are examined under a generalized inflation targeting Taylor-type interest rate rule with forward and backward-looking components. We find that, in terms of model posterior probabilities and standard moments criteria, inclusion of the above financial frictions and an informal sector significantly improves the model fit.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2010/NIPE_WP_29_2010.pdf
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 29/2010.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:29/2010
Contact details of provider: Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
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Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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  1. Nicoletta Batini & Vasco Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "A Floating versus Managed Exchange Rate Regime in a DSGE Model of India," Macroeconomics Working Papers 21992, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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  3. Ferroni, Filippo, 2009. "Trend agnostic one step estimation of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 14550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  7. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, Juan, 2004. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 153-187, November.
  10. Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2008. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a ‘Calvo-type’ rule," NIPE Working Papers 09/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  11. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," CEG Working Papers 20017, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  12. Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  14. Andrle, Michal, 2008. "The Role of Trends and Detrending in DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 13289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  16. John Geweke, 1999. "Computational Experiments and Reality," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 401, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2009. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0609, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  18. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  19. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Nicoletta Batini, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/22, International Monetary Fund.
  20. David N. DeJong & Chetan Dave, 2007. "Implementing Nonlinear Appoximations Empirically, from Structural Macroeconometrics
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    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  21. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Vasco Cúrdia, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Sudden Stops," International Finance 0510025, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005.
  23. Cook, David, 2004. "Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1155-1181, September.
  24. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  25. Codrina Rada, 2009. "Formal and Informal Sectors in China and India: An Accounting-Based Approach," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2009_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  26. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  27. Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim, 2010. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 10/42, International Monetary Fund.
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