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An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy

We develop a closed-economy DSGE model of the Indian economy and estimate it by Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods using Dynare. We build up in stages to a model with a number of features important for emerging economies in general and the Indian economy in particular: a large proportion of credit-constrained consumers, a financial accelerator facing domestic firms seeking to finance their investment, and an informal sector. The simulation properties of the estimated model are examined under a generalized inflation targeting Taylor-type interest rate rule with forward and backward-looking components. We find that, in terms of model posterior probabilities and standard moments criteria, inclusion of the above financial frictions and an informal sector significantly improves the model fit.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2010/NIPE_WP_29_2010.pdf
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 29/2010.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:29/2010
Contact details of provider: Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Fax: +351-253601380
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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  11. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 14677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Codrina Rada, 2009. "Formal and Informal Sectors in China and India: An Accounting-Based Approach," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2009_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  13. Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  16. Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2009. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0609, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  17. Vasco Gabriel & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2008. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a `Calvo-type' rule," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0508, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  18. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, Juan, 2004. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 153-187, November.
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  21. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 200111, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  22. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  23. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. Cook, David, 2004. "Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1155-1181, September.
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  27. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Nicoletta Batini, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/22, International Monetary Fund.
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