IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Business cycles: a role for imperfect competition in the banking system

  • Federico S. Mandelman

This paper studies the cyclical pattern of ex post markups in the banking system using balance-sheet data for a large set of countries. Markups are strongly countercyclical even after controlling for financial development, banking concentration, operational costs, inflation, and simultaneity or reverse causation. The countercyclical pattern is explained by the procyclical entry of foreign banks, which occurs mostly at the wholesale level and signals the intention to spread to the retail level. My hypothesis is that wholesale entry triggers incumbents' limit-pricing strategies, which are aimed at deterring entry into retail niches and which, in turn, dampen bank markups. In the second part of the paper, I develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for these features of the data. I find that this monopolistic behavior in the intermediary financial sector increases the volatility of real variables and amplifies the business cycle. I interpret this bank-supply channel as an extension of the credit channel pioneered by Bernanke and Blinder (1988).

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0621.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series FRB Atlanta Working Paper with number 2006-21.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-21
Contact details of provider: Postal:
1000 Peachtree St., N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30309

Phone: 404-521-8500
Web page: http://www.frbatlanta.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Vegh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  4. Cerasi, V. & Chizzolini, B. & Ivaldi, M., 1997. "Sunk Costs and Competitiveness of European Banks after Deregulation," Papers 97.478, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  5. Demsetz, Harold, 1973. "Industry Structure, Market Rivalry, and Public Policy," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, April.
  6. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2004. "Regulations, market structure, institutions, and the cost of financial intermediation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 593-626.
  7. Judith A. Chevalier & David S. Scharfstein, 1994. "Capital Market Imperfections and Countercyclical Markups: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1989. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 3206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ribon, S. & Yosha, O., 1999. "Financial Liberalization and Competition in Banking: an Empirical Investigation," Papers 23-99, Tel Aviv.
  11. Claessens, Stijn & Demirguc-Kunt, Asl[iota] & Huizinga, Harry, 2001. "How does foreign entry affect domestic banking markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 891-911, May.
  12. Sherrill Shaffer, 1990. "A test of competition in Canadian banking," Working Papers 90-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. Angelini, Paolo & Cetorelli, Nicola, 2003. " The Effects of Regulatory Reform on Competition in the Banking Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 663-84, October.
  14. Smirlock, Michael, 1985. "Evidence on the (Non) Relationship between Concentration and Profitability in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 69-83, February.
  15. Jackson, William E, III, 1992. "The Price-Concentration Relationship in Banking: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 373-76, May.
  16. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 599, Boston College Department of Economics.
  17. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  18. Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1998. "The Cyclicality of Markups in a Model with Adjustment Costs: Econometric Evidence for US Industry," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 121-42, May.
  19. Vives, Xavier, 1991. "Regulatory reform in European banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 505-515, April.
  20. Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988. "Financial factors in business fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-78.
  21. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  22. Julio J. Rotemberg & Garth Saloner, 1984. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Business Cycles and Price Wars During Booms," Working papers 349, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  23. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2003. "Spurious welfare reversals in international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 471-500, August.
  24. Hannan, Timothy H & Berger, Allen N, 1991. "The Rigidity of Prices: Evidence from the Banking Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 938-45, September.
  25. Stephen A. Rhoades, 1977. "Structure-performance studies in banking: a summary and evaluation," Staff Studies 92, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Berger, Allen N & Hannan, Timothy H, 1989. "The Price-Concentration Relationship in Banking," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 291-99, May.
  27. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June.
  28. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability : some international evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1900, The World Bank.
  29. Focarelli, D. & Panetta, F. & Salleo, C., 1999. "Why do Banks Merge?," Papers 361, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  30. Saunders, Anthony & Schumacher, Liliana, 2000. "The determinants of bank interest rate margins: an international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 813-832, December.
  31. Angelini, P. & Cetorelli, N., 2000. "Bank Competition and Regulatory Reform: The Case of the Italian Banking Industry," Papers 380, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  32. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  33. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. " The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
  34. David Neumark & Steven A. Sharpe, 1989. "Market structure and the nature of price rigidity: evidence from the market for consumer deposits," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  35. Dario Focarelli & Fabio Panetta & Carmelo Salleo, 1999. "Why Do Banks Merge?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 361, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  36. Graddy, Duane B & Kyle, Reuben, III, 1979. "The Simultaneity of Bank Decision-making, Market Structure, and Bank Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-18, March.
  37. Baumol, William J, 1982. "Contestable Markets: An Uprising in the Theory of Industry Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 1-15, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elaine Clokey)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.