IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Spurious Welfare Reversals in International Business Cycle Models

  • Jinill Kim

    ()

  • Sunghyun Henry Kim

    ()

Several papers on international business cycles have documented spurious welfare reversals, in that incomplete market economies can produce higher welfare than the complete market economy. This paper demonstrates how conventional linearization, as used in King, Plosser, and Rebelo (1988), can generate approximation errors that are large enough to result in such reversals. Using a two-country production economy without capital, we argue that spurious welfare reversals are not only possible but also plausible under reasonable parameter values. As a constructive alternative, this paper proposes an approximation method that modifies the conventional linearization method by a bias correction---the linear approximation around a 'stochastic' steady state. We show that this method can be easily implemented to accurately approximate the exact solution and therefore produce the correct welfare ordering. The accuracy of the proposed method is far better than that of the conventional linearization method and as good as that of a method involving a second-order expansion.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.virginia.edu/economics/RePEc/vir/virpap/papers/virpap319.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Virginia, Department of Economics in its series Virginia Economics Online Papers with number 319.

as
in new window

Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vir:virpap:319
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.virginia.edu/economics/home.html

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jang-Ok Cho & Thomas Cooley & Louis Phaneuf, 1994. "The Welfare Costs of Nominal Wage Contracting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 30, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised 22 Jan 1996.
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  3. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
  4. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Online Appendix to Should the Social Security Trust Fund hold Equities? An Intergenerational Welfare Analysis," Technical Appendices bohn99, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  5. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June.
  6. Christopher Otrok, 2000. "On Measuring the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1094, Econometric Society.
  7. Gaspar, Jess & L. Judd, Kenneth, 1997. "Solving Large-Scale Rational-Expectations Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 45-75, January.
  8. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang, 1999. "Wages and the Allocation of Hours and Effort," NBER Working Papers 7309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  10. Devereux, Michael B. & Saito, Makoto, 1997. "Growth and risk-sharing with incomplete international assets markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 453-481, May.
  11. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2000. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1895, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  13. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  14. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
  15. Tesar, Linda L., 1995. "Evaluating the gains from international risksharing," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-143, June.
  16. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Jinill Kim & Dale W. Henderson, 2002. "Inflation targeting and nominal income growth targeting: when and why are they suboptimal?," International Finance Discussion Papers 719, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Dale W. Henderson & Jinill Kim, 1999. "Exact utilities under alternative monetary rules in a simple macro model with optimizing agents," International Finance Discussion Papers 635, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  20. John B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig, 1989. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," NBER Working Papers 3117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry & Levin, Andrew, 2003. "Patience, persistence, and welfare costs of incomplete markets in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 385-396, December.
  22. repec:fth:calaec:4-98 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Woodford Michael, 2002. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
  24. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  26. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December.
  27. van Wincoop, Eric, 1999. "How big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 109-135, February.
  28. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:45-75 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Lewis, Karen K., 2000. "Why do stocks and consumption imply such different gains from international risk sharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-35, October.
  30. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vir:virpap:319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Debby Stanford)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.