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Why Does Monetary Policy Respond to the Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Economies? A Bayesian Perspective

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Abstract

To estimate how monetary policy works in small open economies, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates the basic features of these economies. We conclude that the monetary policy in a group of small open economies (including Australia, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and New Zealand) is rather similar to that observed in closed economies. Our results also indicate, however, that there are strong differences due to shocks from the international financial markets (mainly risk premium shocks). These differences explain most of the variability of the real exchange rate, which has important reallocation effects in the short run. Our results are consistent with an old idea from the Mundell-Fleming model: namely, a real depreciation to confront a risk premium shock is expansive or procyclical, in contradiction to the predictions of the balance sheet effect, the J curve effect, and the introduction of working capital into RBC models. In line with this last result, we have strong evidence that only in one of the five countries analyzed in this study does not intervene the real exchange rate, the case of New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Garcia, 2012. "Why Does Monetary Policy Respond to the Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Economies? A Bayesian Perspective," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv287, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  • Handle: RePEc:ila:ilades:inv287
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    Cited by:

    1. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan, 2016. "“Acelerador financiero, impacto del precio del gas”
      [“Financial accelerator, oil price impact "]
      ," MPRA Paper 78784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pb:p:337-354 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    4. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan, 2016. "Evaluación de la Política Fiscal de Bolivia
      [Evaluation of Bolivia's Fiscal Policy]
      ," MPRA Paper 78789, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    small open economy models; monetary policy rules; exchange rates; Bayesian econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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