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Evaluación de Reglas de Tasa de Interés en un Modelo de Economía Pequeña y Abierta

  • Julian Pérez Amaya

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    Empleando un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico para una economía pequeña y abierta con imperfecciones y rigideces en el sector no transable calibrado para Colombia, se estudia la conveniencia de que la autoridad monetaria fije como medida de inflación objetivo en su función de reacción la inflación total, la inflación doméstica o la inflación externa, en un contexto en el cual la fuente de las fluctuaciones proviene del sector externo y de choques en la productividad en cada uno de los sectores. Dada la existencia de una curva de Phillips aumentada por expectativas en el sector no transable, la política monetaria implica un trade-off entre la incertidumbre sobre la inflación y la variabilidad del producto. Se encuentra que este trade-off varía de acuerdo a la medida de inflación incluida en la función de reacción de la autoridad monetaria. Además, se encuentran los siguientes resultados: Una regla de tasa de interés que responde a la inflación no transable, es la más efectiva en reducir la variabilidad del producto, al costo de tener una inflación total más volátil que en los otros dos regímenes estudiados. En el caso de tener un régimen que responde a la inflación transable se genera más volatilidad en el producto con un nivel de volatilidad medio en la inflación. La política más efectiva para reducir la variabilidad de la inflación total, es aquella en que el banco central responde a la inflación total. Dado que este régimen genera una volatilidad media en el producto, puede ser considerado como el mejor régimen en términos de minimización de la variabilidad del producto y de la inflación total.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 385.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:385
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