IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel

  • Argov, Eyal
  • Binyamini, Alon
  • Elkayam, David
  • Rozenshtrom, Irit

This study presents a small New Keynesian model of Israel’s economy describing the relationships among the main variables relevant to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The model encompasses three structural equations––for inflation, the output gap, and the exchange rate––and an interest rate rule, that describes how the interest rate should be adjusted in order to eventually achieve the inflation target. The theory underlying the model is broadly in line with the current monetary theory prevailing in academia and central banks. The model is small, yet it includes the main channels through which the central bank’s interest rate affects inflation in a small open economy. An important advantage of a small model is its ability to describe, clearly and simply, the interrelation between the main variables that are related to the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy, while maintaining theoretical coherence. The model presented is intended to serve as an operational tool that can aid policy makers to assess the interest rate path required to achieve the inflation target, but it can also serve others interested in monitoring monetary developments or in forecasting the evolution of the relevant variables. The model can also help to focus the monetary-policy discussion and enhance the communication between the various entities, both within and outside the central bank, involved in monetary policy and its outcomes. To improve the forecasting ability of the model, in formulating the equations we tried to strike a balance between the need to maintain economic logic and the need to obtain an adequate empirical description of the relation between the relevant variables. The parameters of the model were estimated using quarterly data of Israel’s economy in the years 1992 to 2005.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4784.

in new window

Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4784
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alfred V. Guender, 2004. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in the open economy: Choosing between CPI and domestic inflation as target variables," Macroeconomics 0404038, EconWPA.
  2. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," NBER Working Papers 6675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Fabio Ghironi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2000. "Monetary Rules for Emerging Market Economies," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 476, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Aug 2001.
  6. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 2756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  8. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderstrom, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 290, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2006. "Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution," Working Paper Series 0643, European Central Bank.
  10. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Lindé, Jesper & Nessen, Marianne & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Monetary Policy in an Estimated Open-Economy Model with Imperfect Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 4531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Williams, John C. & Levin, Andrew T. & Wieland, Volker, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0068, European Central Bank.
  13. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy: Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 300, Econometric Society.
  14. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Argov, Eyal & Elkayam, David, 2007. "An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Israel," MPRA Paper 9412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  17. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  18. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  21. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2005. "International dimensions of optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 281-305, March.
  22. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 122, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  24. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Working Paper Research 19, National Bank of Belgium.
  25. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  26. Adolfson, Malin, 2007. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 468-494, April.
  27. Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 393-413, March.
  28. Kai Leitemo, 2006. "Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 35-64, 02.
  29. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
  31. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/21, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  34. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4784. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.