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An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Israel

  • Argov, Eyal
  • Elkayam, David

We formulate and estimate a small New Keynesian model for the Israeli economy. Our goal is to construct a small but still realistic model that can be used to support the inflation targeting process. The model contains three structural equations: An open economy Phillips curve for CPI inflation (excluding the housing component), an aggregate demand curve for the output gap and an interest parity condition for the nominal exchange rate. The model is closed with an interest rate reaction function (Taylor-type rule) and an ad hoc equation for the housing component of the CPI, which is dominated by exchange rate changes. In the specification of the model we had to pay special attention to the crucial role of the exchange rate in the transmission of monetary policy in Israel, which has a direct effect on almost 60 percent of the CPI. The model is estimated by the GMM method, using quarterly data for the period 1992:I to 2005:IV. In the estimation of the structural equations we tried to remain as close as possible to the theoretical formulation by restricting the dynamics to one lag at most. We use the model to characterize an "optimal" simple interest rate rule. We find that the monetary authority should respond to an hybrid backward-forward looking rate of inflation and does not benefit from direct reaction to exchange rate measures.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9412.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9412
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  1. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/21, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jesper Lindé & Marianne Nessén & Ulf Söderström, 2004. "Monetary Policy in an Estimated Open-Economy Model with Imperfect Pass-Through," Working Papers 263, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderstrom, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 290, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Rodrigo Caputo, 2009. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Desviations?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 24(1), pages 55-99, Junio.
  6. Adolfson, Malin, 2002. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Working Paper Series 136, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
  9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 74-91, Winter.
  11. repec:oup:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:707-734 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Michael Woodford, 2006. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 1104, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 122, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  14. Kai Leitemo, 2006. "Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 35-64, 02.
  15. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  16. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  17. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 393-413, March.
  19. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
  20. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0128, European Central Bank.
  21. Andrew Levin & John C. Williams, 2000. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1781, Econometric Society.
  22. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2006. "Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution," Working Paper Series 0643, European Central Bank.
  23. Batini, Nicoletta & Jackson, Brian & Nickell, Stephen, 2005. "An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1061-1071, September.
  24. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 127, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  25. Argov, Eyal & Binyamini, Alon & Elkayam, David & Rozenshtrom, Irit, 2007. "A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel," MPRA Paper 4784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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