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Open-Economy Inflation- Forecast Targeting

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  • Leitemo Kai

    (Norwegian School of Management BI,Oslo, Norway)

Abstract

We study simple inflation-forecast targeting in an open-economy setting. Simple inflation-forecast targeting implies setting an interest rate which, if kept unchanged throughout the forecast-targeting horizon, produces a conditional inflation forecast equal to the inflation target at the end of the horizon.We find that the optimal forecast-targeting horizon is relatively short (one year). A longer horizon does not consistently contribute to improved output stability, indeed it increases exchange rate variability and traded sector variability. The targeting procedure is substantially inferior to the optimal pre-commitment policy. Moreover, the targeting procedure does not necessarily determine the rational-expectations equilibrium and is subject to time inconsistency.

Suggested Citation

  • Leitemo Kai, 2006. "Open-Economy Inflation- Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 35-64, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:35-64
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2006.00146.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 393-413, March.
    2. Herwartz Helmut & Roestel Jan, 2009. "Monetary Independence under Floating Exchange Rates: Evidence Based on International Breakeven Inflation Rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Eyal Argov & David Elkayam, 2010. "An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Israel," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 7(2), pages 1-40.
    4. Argov, Eyal & Binyamini, Alon & Elkayam, David & Rozenshtrom, Irit, 2007. "A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel," MPRA Paper 4784, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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