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Fiscal rules in a volatile world: A welfare-based approach

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  • Garcia, Carlos J.
  • Restrepo, Jorge E.
  • Tanner, Evan

Abstract

It is widely agreed that a fiscal rule should boost discipline and credibility. A rule should also reduce macroeconomic volatility and be easily understood. Toward such ends, a government may run structural surpluses. In so doing, the government accumulates a precautionary cushion of assets on behalf of agents who do not enjoy access to capital markets. As an additional criterion, that level of assets should be bounded. We provide an example of a structural surplus rule that satisfies all such criteria. In our general equilibrium simulations, we show that such a rule benefits credit-constrained consumers but may hurt others.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 649-676

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:649-676
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Keywords: Fiscal rule Volatility Structural surplus Consumer welfare Equilibrium model;

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Cited by:

  1. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability; A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 13/89, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jair N. Ojeda & Julián A. Parra-Polanía & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Natural-Resource Booms, Fiscal Rules and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011132, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.
  4. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Carlos J. García & Pablo González M. & Antonio Moncado S., 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: a Structural Bayesian Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 24-63, April.
  6. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Francisco Roch & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium," IMF Working Papers 12/30, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Carlos Garcia & Pablo Gonzalez & Antonio Moncado, 2010. "Proyecciones Macroeconómicas en Chile: Una Aproximación Bayesiana," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv262, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  8. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.
  9. Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Parra-Polanía, Julián A. & Vargas, Carmiña O., 2016. "Fiscal rules as a response to commodity shocks: A welfare analysis of the Colombian scenario," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 859-866.
  10. Javier García-Cicco & Enrique Kawamura, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch Disease: Fiscal Rules and Macro-Prudential Policies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 90216, Inter-American Development Bank.
  11. Fuentes H., Fernando & García, Carlos J., 2016. "The business cycle and copper mining in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
  12. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo D., 2013. "Exchange rate intervention in small open economies: The role of risk premium and commodity price shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 424-447.
  13. Maravalle, Alessandro & Claeys, Peter, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles and procyclical fiscal policy in a small open economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 735-754.

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