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Fiscal rules in a volatile world: A welfare-based approach

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  • Garcia, Carlos J.
  • Restrepo, Jorge E.
  • Tanner, Evan

Abstract

It is widely agreed that a fiscal rule should boost discipline and credibility. A rule should also reduce macroeconomic volatility and be easily understood. Toward such ends, a government may run structural surpluses. In so doing, the government accumulates a precautionary cushion of assets on behalf of agents who do not enjoy access to capital markets. As an additional criterion, that level of assets should be bounded. We provide an example of a structural surplus rule that satisfies all such criteria. In our general equilibrium simulations, we show that such a rule benefits credit-constrained consumers but may hurt others.

Suggested Citation

  • Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Tanner, Evan, 2011. "Fiscal rules in a volatile world: A welfare-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 649-676, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:649-676
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    Cited by:

    1. Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Parra-Polanía, Julián A. & Vargas, Carmiña O., 2016. "Fiscal rules as a response to commodity shocks: A welfare analysis of the Colombian scenario," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 859-866.
    2. Medina, Juan Pablo & Soto, Claudio, 2016. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy in a commodity exporting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 335-351.
    3. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo D., 2013. "Exchange rate intervention in small open economies: The role of risk premium and commodity price shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 424-447.
    4. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.
    5. Maravalle, Alessandro & Claeys, Peter, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles and procyclical fiscal policy in a small open economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 735-754.
    6. repec:ksp:journ6:v:4:y:2017:i:2:p:156-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan, 2016. "“Acelerador financiero, impacto del precio del gas”
      [“Financial accelerator, oil price impact "]
      ," MPRA Paper 78784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability; A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 13/89, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan, 2016. "Evaluación de la Política Fiscal de Bolivia
      [Evaluation of Bolivia's Fiscal Policy]
      ," MPRA Paper 78789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. Fuentes H., Fernando & García, Carlos J., 2016. "The business cycle and copper mining in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Carlos Garcia & Pablo Gonzalez & Antonio Moncado, 2010. "Proyecciones Macroeconómicas en Chile: Una Aproximación Bayesiana," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv262, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    14. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:138-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Carlos J. García & Pablo González M. & Antonio Moncado S., 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: a Structural Bayesian Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 24-63, April.
    16. Snudden, Stephen, 2016. "Cyclical fiscal rules for oil-exporting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 473-483.
    17. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.
    18. Jair N. OJeda & Julián A. Parra Polanía & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Natural-Resource Booms, Fiscal Rules and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 807, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Joab Dan VALDIVIA CORIA & Daney David VALDIVIA CORIA, 2017. "Impulse on the Aggregate Demand in Bolivia through the Coordination of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Crisis Time," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 156-173, June.
    20. Jimena Zúñiga & Marcelo Capello & Inés Butler & Nester Grión, 2013. "A Cycle-Adjusted Fiscal Rule for Sustainable and More Equitable Growth in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4638, Inter-American Development Bank.
    21. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.

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