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A dynamic rule applied to the threshold imposed on the European budgetary deficits

  • Menguy, Séverine
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    Up until now, European fiscal discipline has been essentially assessed on the basis of the deficit rather than on the debt situations of EU countries. However, the sustainability of the public debt depends on the discrepancy between the interest rate and the growth rate of any given country. As these future economic variables are difficult to anticipate, however, the present paper proposes a more applicable rule for the deficits. Unlike what is stated in the Stability and Growth Pact, the budgetary deficits in the European Union may therefore be kept at higher levels as a country maintains a high inflation or real growth rate, and a low level of public indebtedness.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 1093-1105

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:6:p:1093-1105
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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    1. Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael, 2000. " Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May.
    2. Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Franco, Daniele, 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: Grand Design or Internal Adjustment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bruck, Tilman & Zwiener, Rudolf, 2006. "Fiscal policy rules for stabilisation and growth: A simulation analysis of deficit and expenditure targets in a monetary union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 357-369, May.
    4. Gábor Orbán & György Szapáry, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective of the New Member States," MNB Working Papers 2004/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
    5. Francesco Saraceno & Paola Monperrus-Veroni, 2004. "A Simple Proposal for a 'Debt-Sensitive Stability Pact'," Macroeconomics 0406001, EconWPA.
    6. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 371-395.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2005. "Europe, the euro and the ECB: Monetary success, fiscal failure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 427-439, June.
    8. repec:cai:recosp:reco_p1997_48n3_0371 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2002. "Should the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve be concerned about fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 333-389.
    10. Wyplosz, Charles, 2002. "Fiscal Policy: Institutions versus Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 3238, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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