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Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union

  • Tilman Brück
  • Rudolf Zwiener

We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target of the stability pact leads to less stabilisation than an expenditure target. The results suggest that the deficit rule of the stability pact should be replaced with an expenditure rule augmented by medium-term debt targets.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.41892.de/dp427.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 427.

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Length: 23 p.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp427
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  1. Tilman Brück & Andreas Cors & Klaus F. Zimmermann & Rudolf Zwiener, 2002. "Stability Criteria and Convergence: The Role of the System of National Accounts for Fiscal Policy in Europe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 318, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Engwerda, J.C. & van Aarle, B. & Plasmans, J.E.J., 2002. "Cooperative and non-cooperative fiscal stabilization policies in the EMU," Other publications TiSEM 2cc19f3f-16ad-4fed-a701-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  3. Donatella Gatti, 2002. "Co-ordinating fiscal authorities in the euro-zone: a key role for the ECB," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 56-71, January.
  4. Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2006. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 3-15, 02.
  5. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Peter Mooslechner, 1999. "Challenges for Economic Policy Coordination within European Monetary Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 169-170, September.
  6. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Marín, José M., 2002. "Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline," Working Paper Series 0193, European Central Bank.
  8. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "'Close-to-Balance or in Surplus': A Policy-Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 563-591, November.
  9. Roel Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Franc Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  10. Creel, Jérôme, 2002. "The European Stability Pact and Feedback Policy Effects," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 570-595.
  11. Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Jan In 'T Veld, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, March.
  12. Gottfried Haber, 2001. "Simulation Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in Austria – Optimal Economic Policies for the Past and the Future," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 69-95, March.
  13. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "The Future of Macroeconomic Policy in the European Union," Discussion Papers 07, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  14. Marco Buti & Werner Roeger & Jan In't Veld, 2001. "Stabilizing Output and Inflation: Policy Conflicts and Co-operation under a Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 801-828, December.
  15. Heijdra, Ben J. & Meijdam, Lex, 2002. "Public investment and intergenerational distribution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 707-735, May.
  16. Alan J. Auerbach & Daniel Feenberg, 2000. "The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers," NBER Working Papers 7662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
  18. Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "One Money, but Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What Are the Consequences?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco, 2000. "Public investment, the Stability Pact and the ‘golden rule’," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 207-229, June.
  20. Belke, Ansgar, 2002. "Towards a Balanced Policy Mix under EMU: Co-ordination of Macroeconomic Policies and ‘Economic Government’?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 21-53.
  21. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 2002. "Does One Size Fit All? A currency union with asymmetric transmissions and a stability pact," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 71-96.
  22. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
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