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Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union

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  • Tilman Brück
  • Rudolf Zwiener

Abstract

We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target of the stability pact leads to less stabilisation than an expenditure target. The results suggest that the deficit rule of the stability pact should be replaced with an expenditure rule augmented by medium-term debt targets.

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  • Tilman Brück & Rudolf Zwiener, 2004. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 427, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp427
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    Cited by:

    1. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2010. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-119, January.
    2. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Nur das Angebot zählt?," IMK Report 87-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. L. Marattin & S. Meraglia, 2015. "Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers wp1018, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Ahmad, Nazneen & Xiao, Wei, 2013. "End of double taxation: Is the policy better when announced?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 928-942.
    5. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 597-617, July.
    6. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2017. "Does the design of a fiscal rule matter for welfare?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 226-237.
    7. Elekdag, Selim & Muir, Dirk & Wu, Yiqun, 2015. "Trade linkages, balance sheets, and spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 374-387.
    8. Sebastian Hauptmeier & A. Jesús Sánchez Fuentes & Ludger Schuknecht, 2015. "Spending Dynamics in Euro Area Countries: Composition and Determinants," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 119-138, December.
    9. Ferré, Montserrat, 2012. "The effects of uncertainty about countries’ compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, pages 660-674.
    10. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.
    11. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. L. Marattin & S. Meraglia, 2016. "Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union under Asymmetric Information – 2nd ed," Working Papers wp1063, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Is the supply side all that counts?," IMK Report 87e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Paolo Biraschi, "undated". "Searching for the optimal EMU fiscal rule:an ex-post analysis of the SGP reform proposals," Working Papers wp2008-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    15. Ferré, Montserrat, 2008. "Fiscal policy coordination in the EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 221-235.
    16. Menguy, Séverine, 2008. "A dynamic rule applied to the threshold imposed on the European budgetary deficits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1093-1105.
    17. Grégory Claeys & Zsolt Darvas & Alvaro Leandro, 2016. "A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework," Policy Contributions 13490, Bruegel.
    18. Golinelli, Roberto & Momigliano, Sandro, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 943-964, December.
    19. Aurélien Eyquem, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in an Estimated Model of the European Monetary Union," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200705, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    20. Silvia Angelo & Markus Marterbauer & Irene Mozart & Bruno Rossmann & Margit Schratzenstaller & Norbert Templ, 2004. "Ein alternativer Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 91, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    21. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    22. Bonatti, Luigi & Cristini, Annalisa, 2008. "Breaking the Stability Pact: Was it predictable?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 793-810.
    23. Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; International policy coordination; Simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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