IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v50y2015icp85-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Oros, Cornel
  • Zimmer, Blandine

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a monetary-fiscal game in a monetary union with uncertainty due to imperfect transparency about the central bank's preferences. The objective is to investigate the macroeconomic effects of this uncertainty by explicitly taking into account the role of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We first consider the case of symmetric monetary transmission in the monetary union and show that if the transmission mechanism is not too strong, monetary uncertainty may be beneficial in terms of macroeconomic performances and stabilisation. We then allow for some transmission asymmetry among the member countries and show that the beneficial impact of monetary uncertainty is exacerbated for countries that are more sensitive to the common monetary policy. More importantly, our findings suggest that the central bank's communication about its preferences could represent a specific instrument to influence inflation expectations and thus macroeconomic outcomes in the member countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Oros, Cornel & Zimmer, Blandine, 2015. "Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-93.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:85-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315001522
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2007. "Central Bank transparency in theory and practice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 760-789, December.
    2. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Klaassen, Franc, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Bovenberg, A. Lans, 1999. "Does monetary unification lead to excessive debt accumulation?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 299-325, December.
    4. van der Cruijsen, Carin A.B. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Hoogduin, Lex H., 2010. "Optimal central bank transparency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1482-1507, December.
    5. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Heterogeneous transmission mechanism: monetary policy and financial fragility in the eurozone [Which financial frictions? Parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007-9]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 28(75), pages 459-512.
    6. Carsten Hefeker, 2008. "Uncertainty And Wage Setting In A Monetary Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(4), pages 391-404, July.
    7. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2013. "Heterogeneous transmission mechanism: monetary policy and financial fragility in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1527, European Central Bank.
    8. repec:laf:wpaper:201108 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    10. Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2011. "Fiscal disciplining effect of central bank opacity: Stackelberg versus Nash equilibrium," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3068-3076.
    11. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    12. Cornel Oros, 2008. "Macroeconomic stabilization in a heterogeneous monetary union: some insights into the effects of fiscal policy coordination," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(34), pages 1-12.
    13. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    14. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2009. "Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates," NBER Working Papers 14791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:34:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jürgen von Hagen & Susanne Mundschenk, 2003. "Fiscal and monetary policy coordination in EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 279-295.
    17. Gruener Hans Peter & Hayo Bernd & Hefeker Carsten, 2009. "Unions, Wage Setting and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, October.
    18. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 99-118.
    19. Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-387, October.
    20. Alex Cukierman, 2009. "The Limits of Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 1-37, February.
    21. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
    22. Patrick Villieu, 2003. "Pacte de stabilité, crédibilité du policy mix et coordination des politiques budgétaires en union monétaire," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(1), pages 25-46.
    23. Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008. "Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
    24. Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Robust delegation with uncertain monetary policy preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 73-78.
    25. Badarau, Cristina & Levieuge, Grégory, 2011. "Assessing the effects of financial heterogeneity in a monetary union a DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2451-2461.
    26. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2015. "Heterogeneous monetary transmission process in the Eurozone: Does banking competition matter?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 115-134.
    27. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2011. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 163-178, February.
    28. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Enrico Marchetti & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2007. "Unions, Fiscal Policy And Central Bank Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 617-633, September.
    29. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "One Money, But Many Fiscal Policies in Europe : What are the Consequences?," Discussion Paper 2002-32, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    30. Séverine Menguy, 2005. "Hétérogénéité structurelle des pays membres et conflit d'objectifs entre les autorités économiques dans l'UEM," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 41-58.
    31. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 399-422, September.
    32. Mr. Christopher W. Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2008. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 2008/119, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Engwerda, Jacob C. & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph E. J., 2002. "Cooperative and non-cooperative fiscal stabilization policies in the EMU," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 451-481, March.
    34. Petra M. Geraats, 2009. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 235-268, August.
    35. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2013. "Business lending rate pass-through in the Eurozone: monetary policy transmission before and after the financial crash," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 973-985.
    36. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-571, October.
    37. Séverine Menguy, 2005. "Hétérogénéité structurelle des pays membres et conflit dobjectifs entre les autorités économiques dans l'UEM," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 41-58.
    38. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    39. Kashyap, Anil K. & Mojon, Benoît & Terlizzese, Daniele & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    40. Dornbusch, Rudi, 1997. "Fiscal Aspects of Monetary Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 221-223, May.
    41. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2011. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 195-208, September.
    42. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2009. "Transparency in monetary policy: A general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 608-613, May.
    44. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    45. Beetsma, Roel M W J & Jensen, Henrik, 2003. "Why Money Talks and Wealth Whispers: Monetary Uncertainty and Mystique: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 129-136, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chortareas, Georgios & Mavrodimitrakis, Christos, 2021. "Policy conflict, coordination, and leadership in a monetary union under imperfect instrument substitutability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 342-361.
    2. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    3. Chortareas, Georgios & Mavrodimitrakis, Christos, 2016. "Can monetary policy fully stabilize pure demand shocks in a monetary union with a fiscal leader?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 463-468.
    4. Mohamed Arouri & David Roubaud, 2016. "On the determinants of stock market dynamics in emerging countries: the role of economic policy uncertainty in China and India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 760-770.
    5. McCredie, Bronwyn & Docherty, Paul & Easton, Steve & Uylangco, Katherine, 2016. "The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 46-61.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meixing Dai, 2016. "Static And Dynamic Effects Of Central Bank Transparency," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 55-78, January.
    2. Meixing Dai & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Central bank transparency with the cost channel," Working Papers of BETA 2013-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Meixing Dai & Qiao Zhang, 2017. "Central bank transparency under the cost channel," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, June.
    4. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Enrico Marchetti, 2012. "Optimal linear contracts under common agency and uncertain central bank preferences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 263-282, January.
    5. Hefeker, Carsten & Zimmer, Blandine, 2011. "The optimal choice of central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 595-606.
    6. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2010. "Central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty: Substitutes or complements?," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 140-10, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
    7. Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.
    8. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2011. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 195-208, September.
    9. Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Institutional Quality and Central Bank Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(5), pages 523-545, September.
    10. Shambaugh, George E. & Shen, Elaine B., 2018. "A clear advantage: The benefits of transparency to crisis recovery," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 391-416.
    11. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2014. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement, Determinants, and Economic Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 739-770, September.
    12. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2011. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 163-178, February.
    13. Carsten Hefeker & Michael Neugart, 2014. "The Influence of Central Bank Transparency on Labor Market Regulation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(1), pages 17-32, January.
    14. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moise, 2008. "Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union in the Presence of Uncertainty about the Central Bank Preferences," MPRA Paper 13907, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
    15. Petra M. Geraats, 2009. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 235-268, August.
    16. Carsten Hefeker, 2011. "Policy Uncertainty and Economic Reforms in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 274-285, August.
    17. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2009. "Public investment, distortionary taxes and monetary policy transparency," MPRA Paper 15858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Cornel Oros, 2010. "Macroeconomic Stabilization and Asymmetrical Information in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1984-1993.
    19. Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2015. "The effect of the market-based monetary policy transparency index on inflation and output variability," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 105-124, January.
    20. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Enrico Marchetti & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2007. "Unions, Fiscal Policy And Central Bank Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 617-633, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:85-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.