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How multiplicative uncertainty affects the tradeoff between information disclosure and stabilisation policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Meixing Dai
  • Moïse Sidiropoulos

Abstract

In an economy characterised by Keynes’ “beauty contest”, policymakers can either disseminate their own information and abstain from stabilisation policy, or use an informational advantage to undertake active policy intervention. The contribution of this paper is to analyse how such a trade-off is affected by Brainard’s conservatism principle. We show that multiplicative uncertainty reduces the incentive for policy activism and weakens the argument for imperfect disclosure of the policymaker’s private information. Notably, a sufficient high degree of multiplicative uncertainty in the transmission of policy intervention would call for full disclosure of public information in the presence of stabilisation policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2017. "How multiplicative uncertainty affects the tradeoff between information disclosure and stabilisation policy?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2017-15
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    File URL: http://beta.u-strasbg.fr/WP/2017/2017-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiplicative uncertainty; heterogeneous private information; optimal information disclosure; policy intervention; strategic complementarities.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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