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Central Bank Independence and Conservatism under Uncertainty: Substitutes or Complements?

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  • Carsten Hefeker
  • Blandine Zimmer

Abstract

The paper examines the optimal combination of central bank independence and conservatism in the presence of uncertain central bank preferences. We develop a model of endogenous monetary policy delegation in which government chooses the central bank's degree of inde-pendence and conservatism so as to minimise society's loss function. We find that the optimal combination between independence and conservatism is not necessarily characterised by substitutability. When uncertainty about the central bank's preferences is high, independence and conservatism can become complements. In this case, giving more independence to the central bank increases the need for conservatism.

Suggested Citation

  • Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2011. "Central Bank Independence and Conservatism under Uncertainty: Substitutes or Complements?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3344, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3344
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    3. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    5. Dalla Pellegrina, L. & Masciandaro, D. & Pansini, R.V., 2013. "The central banker as prudential supervisor: Does independence matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 415-427.
    6. Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Robust delegation with uncertain monetary policy preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 73-78.
    7. Abdelkader Aguir, 2018. "Central Bank Credibility, Independence, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(3), pages 91-110.
    8. C Katseli & A Theofilakou & K Zekente, 2020. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation Preferences: New Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Inflation," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 1-29, March.
    9. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Olga S. Kuznetsova & Sergey A. Merzlyakov, 2015. "The Role of Uncertain Government Preferences For Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction," HSE Working papers WP BRP 102/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2015. "Optimal Conservatism and Collective Monetary Policymaking under Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 259-278, April.
    12. de Haan, J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester, 2016. "The Politics of Central Bank Independence," Other publications TiSEM 54f2c3e3-46f2-4763-b1ac-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Derakhshani Darabi , Kaveh & Jafari Samimi , Ahmad, 2016. "Central Bank Independence and Central Bank Conservatism: Theory with an Application to Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(1), pages 15-30, January.
    14. Meixing Dai, 2016. "Static And Dynamic Effects Of Central Bank Transparency," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 55-78, January.
    15. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. de Haan, J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester, 2016. "The Politics of Central Bank Independence," Discussion Paper 2016-047, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Charemza, Wojciech & Díaz, Carlos & Makarova, Svetlana, 2019. "Quasi ex-ante inflation forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 994-1007.
    18. Meixing Dai & Qiao Zhang, 2017. "Central bank transparency under the cost channel," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, June.
    19. Esteban Colla De Robertis, 2010. "Monetary Committee Size and Special Interest Influence," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 2, CEMLA.
    20. Meixing Dai & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Central bank transparency with the cost channel," Working Papers of BETA 2013-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    21. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank independence; conservatism; transparency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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