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Robust Delegation with Uncertain Monetary Policy Preferences

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  • Marco M. Sorge

Abstract

Recent research has renewed interest in the exploration of the optimal design of monetary policy institutions in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, we revisit the rationale for delegation to a weight-conservative central banker when the social planner’s knowledge about the true preferences of delegates is ex ante ambiguous and he exhibits a preference for robustness. In this context, a robust (worst-case oriented) delegation strategy is intended to minimize the maximum welfare loss over the uncertainty set, when no prior probability distribution for the preference bias (conservatism-gap) is available. We find that both over and underconservatism may emerge with respect to the certainty case, for robust delegation is shown to be model-dependent. Most importantly, under reasonable model’s parameterizations, Rogoff’s principle is reversed: it is optimal for society to appoint a weight-liberal central banker.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco M. Sorge, 2012. "Robust Delegation with Uncertain Monetary Policy Preferences," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_05
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    Cited by:

    1. Oros, Cornel & Zimmer, Blandine, 2015. "Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-93.
    2. Olga S. Kuznetsova & Sergey A. Merzlyakov, 2015. "The Role of Uncertain Government Preferences For Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction," HSE Working papers WP BRP 102/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Hahn, Volker, 2014. "An argument in favor of long terms for central bankers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 132-135.
    4. Qin, Li & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2013. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty and inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 721-728.
    5. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2015. "Optimal Conservatism and Collective Monetary Policymaking under Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 259-278, April.
    6. Meixing Dai & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2010. "Accountability And Transparency About Central Bank Preferences For Model Robustness," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 212-237, May.
    7. Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Robust monetary policy, optimal delegation and misspecified potential output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 244-247.
    8. Li Qin & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2016. "Robustness of Optimal Interest Rate Rules in an Open Economy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 29-46.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00989 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Keiichi Morimoto, 2018. "Further Results on Preference Uncertainty and Monetary Conservatism," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 583-592.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Delegation; Conservative central bank; Preference uncertainty; Minmax policy.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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