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Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information

Author

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  • Thibault Gajdos

    () (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, EUREQUA - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Marc Tallon

    (EUREQUA - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Christophe Vergnaud

    () (EUREQUA - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We develop an axiomatic approach to decision under uncertainty that explicitly takes into account the information available to the decision maker. The information is described by a set of priors and a reference prior. We define a notion of imprecision for this informational setting and show that a decision maker who is averse to information imprecision maximizes the minimum expected utility computed with respect to a subset of the set of initially given priors. The extent to which this set is reduced can be seen as a measure of imprecision aversion. This approach thus allows a lot of flexibility in modelling the decision maker attitude towards imprecision. In contrast, applyingGilboa-Schmeidler [1989] maxmin criterion to the initial set of priors amounts to assuming extreme pessimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2004. "Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00086021, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00086021
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2003.06.004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00086021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Decision; Multiple Priors;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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