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Rational Preferences under Ambiguity

  • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio
  • Paolo Ghirardato
  • Fabio Maccheroni
  • Massimo Marinacci
  • Marciano Siniscalchi

This paper analyzes preferences in the presence of ambiguity that are rational in the sense of satisfying the classical ordering condition as well as monotonicity. Under technical conditions that are natural in an Anscombe-Aumann environment, we show that even for such general preference model it is possible to identify a set of priors, as first envisioned by Ellsberg (1961). We then discuss ambiguity attitudes, as well as unambiguous acts and events, for the class of rational preferences we consider.

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File URL: http://www.carloalberto.org/assets/working-papers/no.169.pdf
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Paper provided by Collegio Carlo Alberto in its series Carlo Alberto Notebooks with number 169.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:169
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  1. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Is it Possible to Define Subjective Probabilities in Purely Behavioral Terms? A Comment on Epstein-Zhang (2001)," Economics Working Papers 0067, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  3. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-80, July.
  5. Massimiliano Amarante & Emel Filiz, 2004. "Ambiguous events and Maxmin Expected Utility," Discussion Papers 0405-09, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  6. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  7. Aurelien Baillon & Olivier L'Haridon & Laetitia Placido, 2011. "Ambiguity Models and the Machina Paradoxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1547-60, June.
  8. Epstein, L.G. & Zhang, J., 1998. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectivity Unambiguous Event," RCER Working Papers 456, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Bernoulli Without Bayes: A Theory of Utility-Sophisticated Preferences under Ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 0072, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  10. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
  11. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
  12. Tomasz Strzalecki, . "Probabilistic Sophistication and Variational Preferences," Working Paper 8337, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  13. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2010. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 755-770, 03.
  14. Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1143, Econometric Society.
  15. Epstein, Larry G, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608, July.
  16. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff and Massimo Marinacci, 2011. "Definitions of Ambiguous Events and the Smooth Ambiguity Model," Economics Series Working Papers 525, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Paolo Ghirardato & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2010. "A more robust definition of multiple priors," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 144, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  18. Marciano Siniscalchi, 2007. "Vector Expected Utility and Attitudes toward Variation," Discussion Papers 1455, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  19. Klaus Nehring, . "Capacities And Probabilistic Beliefs: A Precarious Coexistence," Department of Economics 97-08, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  20. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2008. "Uncertainty Averse Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 77, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  21. Kopylov, Igor, 2007. "Subjective probabilities on "small" domains," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 236-265, March.
  22. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2002. "Certainty Independence and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 40-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  23. Larry G. Epstein & Jiankang Zhang, 1999. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Carleton Economic Papers 99-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  24. Nehring, Klaus, 2009. "Imprecise probabilistic beliefs as a context for decision-making under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1054-1091, May.
  25. Massimo Marinacci, 2001. "Probabilistic sophistication and multiple priors," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 08-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  26. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
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