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Decision making in phantom spaces

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  • Yehuda Izhakian

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  • Zur Izhakian

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Abstract

This paper introduces a new model of decision making under uncertainty. Aiming to provide a more realistic depiction of decision making, it generalizes the von Neumann–Morgenstern theory by including additional tiers of uncertainty. In this model, beliefs about the probabilities of events are ambiguous and their consequential utilities are vague; both are naturally formulated in the phantom space using phantom numbers. The degree of uncertainty, determined by the decision maker’s beliefs, is distinguished from the attitude toward uncertainty, which is drawn from her preferences. Decision making under ambiguity is a particular case of our model in which probabilities are ambiguous, but resulting utilities of events are knowable. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Yehuda Izhakian & Zur Izhakian, 2015. "Decision making in phantom spaces," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(1), pages 59-98, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:58:y:2015:i:1:p:59-98
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-013-0798-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2017. "Expected utility with uncertain probabilities theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 91-103.
    2. repec:eee:jbfina:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phantom probability; Decision making under uncertainty ; Expected utility; Imprecise risk; Ambiguity; Uncertainty; Ellsberg paradox; C65; D81; D83;

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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