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Ambiguity aversion and trade

Author

Listed:
  • Luciano de Castro

    (Kellogg School of Management - Northwestern University (Evanston))

  • Alain Chateauneuf

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Axe Economie mathématique et jeux - CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

What is the effect of ambiguity aversion on trade? Although in a Bewley's model, ambiguity aversion always leads to less trade; in other models, this is not always true. However, we show that if the endowments are unambiguous, then more ambiguity aversion implies less trade for a very general class of preferences. The reduction in trade caused by ambiguity aversion can be as severe as to lead to no trade. In an economy with MEU decision makers, we show that if the aggregate endowment is unanimously unambiguous, then every Pareto optima allocation is also unambiguous. We also characterize the situation in which every unanimously unambiguous allocation is Pareto optimal. Finally, we show how our results can be used to explain the home-bias effect. As a useful result for our methods, we also obtain an additivity theorem for CEU and MEU decision makers that does not require comonotonicity.

Suggested Citation

  • Luciano de Castro & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Ambiguity aversion and trade," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00685408, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00685408
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-011-0642-6
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00685408
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    2. Antoine Billot & Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2020. "Market Allocations under Ambiguity: A Survey," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 71(2), pages 267-282.
    3. Patrick Beissner & Frank Riedel, 2018. "Non-implementability of Arrow–Debreu equilibria by continuous trading under volatility uncertainty," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 603-620, July.
    4. De Castro, Luciano & Yannelis, Nicholas C., 2018. "Uncertainty, efficiency and incentive compatibility: Ambiguity solves the conflict between efficiency and incentive compatibility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 678-707.
    5. Shiri Alon & Aviad Heifetz, 2014. "The logic of Knightian games," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(2), pages 161-182, October.
    6. Patrick Beissner & Frank Riedel, 2014. "Non-Implementability of Arrow-Debreu Equilibria by Continuous Trading under Knightian Uncertainty," Papers 1409.6940, arXiv.org.
    7. Beißner, Patrick & Riedel, Frank, 2016. "Knight-Walras equilibria," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 558, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    9. Christian Gollier, 2014. "Optimal insurance design of ambiguous risks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 57(3), pages 555-576, November.
    10. Patrick Beissner & Frank Riedel, 2019. "Equilibria Under Knightian Price Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 37-64, January.
    11. Eisei Ohtaki, 2020. "Optimality in an OLG model with nonsmooth preferences," Working Papers e145, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    12. Beißner, Patrick, 2016. "Radner Equilibria under Ambiguous Volatility," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 493, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    13. Tatjana Chudjakow & Frank Riedel, 2013. "The best choice problem under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(1), pages 77-97, September.
    14. José Faro, 2013. "Cobb-Douglas preferences under uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(2), pages 273-285, October.
    15. Frederik S. Herzberg, 2013. "The (im)possibility of collective risk measurement: Arrovian aggregation of variational preferences," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 1(1), pages 69-92, May.
    16. Zhiwei Liu, 2014. "A note on the welfare of the maximin rational expectations," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(2), pages 213-218, October.
    17. Angelos Angelopoulos & Leonidas Koutsougeras, 2015. "Value allocation under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(1), pages 147-167, May.
    18. Patrick Beissner, 2017. "Equilibrium prices and trade under ambiguous volatility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(2), pages 213-238, August.
    19. Maria Näther, 2019. "The effect of the central bank’s standing facilities on interbank lending and bank liquidity holding," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(3), pages 537-577, October.
    20. Michele Lombardi & Naoki Yoshihara, 2013. "A full characterization of nash implementation with strategy space reduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(1), pages 131-151, September.
    21. Tamini, Lota D., 2012. "Optimal quality choice under uncertainty on market development," MPRA Paper 40845, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Boonen, Tim J., 2017. "Risk Redistribution Games With Dual Utilities," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 303-329, January.
    23. Yehuda Izhakian & Zur Izhakian, 2015. "Decision making in phantom spaces," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(1), pages 59-98, January.
    24. M. Peiris & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2013. "Savings and default," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(1), pages 153-180, September.
    25. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2019. "Agreeing on disagreement: Heterogeneity or uncertainty?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 17-30.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity aversion; Pareto optimality;

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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