Symmetry Of Evidence Without Evidence Of Symmetry
The de Finetti Theorem is a cornerstone of the Bayesian approach. Bernardo [4, p. 5] writes that its "message is very clear: if a sequence of observations is judged to be exchangeable, then any subset of them must be regarded as a random sample from some model, and there exists a prior distribution on the parameter of such model, hence requiring a Bayesian approach." We argue that while exchangeability, interpreted as symmetry of evidence, is a weak assumption, when combined with subjective expected utility theory, it implies also complete confidence that experiments are identical. When evidence is sparse, and there is little evidence of symmetry, this implication of de Finetti's hypotheses is not intuitive. We adopt multiple-priors utility as the benchmark model of preference and generalize the de Finetti Theorem to this framework. The resulting model also features a "conditionally IID" representation, but it differs from de Finetti in permitting the degree of confidence in the evidence of symmetry to be subjective.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 270 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215|
Web page: http://www.bu.edu/econ/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mongin Philippe, 1995.
"Consistent Bayesian Aggregation,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 313-351, August.
- MONGIN, Philippe, 1993. "Consistent Bayesian Aggregation," CORE Discussion Papers 1993019, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Mongin, P., . "Consistent Bayesian aggregation," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1176, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2008-018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gillian Gurish)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.