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Rational preferences under ambiguity

Listed author(s):
  • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio

    ()

  • Paolo Ghirardato

    ()

  • Fabio Maccheroni

    ()

  • Massimo Marinacci

    ()

  • Marciano Siniscalchi

    ()

This paper analyzes preferences in the presence of ambiguity that are rational in the sense of satisfying the classical ordering condition as well as monotonicity. Under technical conditions that are natural in an Anscombe-Aumann environment, we show that even for such general preference model it is possible to identify a set of priors, as first envisioned by Ellsberg (1961). We then discuss ambiguity attitudes, as well as unambiguous acts and events, for the class of rational preferences we consider.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-011-0643-5
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Article provided by Springer & Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET) in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 48 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 341-375

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:48:y:2011:i:2:p:341-375
DOI: 10.1007/s00199-011-0643-5
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Web page: http://saet.uiowa.edu/

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Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/economic+theory/journal/199/PS2

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Laetitia Placido & Aurélien Baillon & Olivier L'Haridon, 2011. "Ambiguity models and the Machina paradoxes," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00645899, HAL.
  2. Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1143, Econometric Society.
  3. Nehring, Klaus, 2009. "Imprecise probabilistic beliefs as a context for decision-making under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1054-1091, May.
  4. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2010. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Post-Print hal-00537082, HAL.
  5. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Bernoulli Without Bayes: A Theory of Utility-Sophisticated Preferences under Ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 0072, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  6. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
  7. Klaus Nehring & Michael Magill & Julian R. Betts, 2003. "Capacities And Probabilistic Beliefs: A Precarious Coexistence," Working Papers 978, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  8. Machina,Mark & Schmeidler,David, 1991. "A more robust definition of subjective probability," Discussion Paper Serie A 365, University of Bonn, Germany.
  9. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2008. "Uncertainty Averse Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 77, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  10. Amarante, Massimiliano & Filiz, Emel, 2007. "Ambiguous events and maxmin expected utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 1-33, May.
  11. Massimo Marinacci, 2001. "Probabilistic sophistication and multiple priors," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 08-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  12. Tomasz Strzalecki, "undated". "Probabilistic Sophistication and Variational Preferences," Working Paper 8337, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  13. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2004. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 12, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
  14. Marciano Siniscalchi, 2009. "Vector Expected Utility and Attitudes Toward Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 801-855, 05.
  15. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
  16. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2002. "Certainty Independence and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 40-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  17. Epstein, Larry G & Zhang, Jiankang, 2001. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 265-306, March.
  18. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  19. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff and Massimo Marinacci, 2011. "Definitions of Ambiguous Events and the Smooth Ambiguity Model," Economics Series Working Papers 525, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  20. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2002. "A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised Apr 2003.
  21. Larry G. Epstein, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608.
  22. Paolo Ghirardato & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2010. "A more robust definition of multiple priors," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 144, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  23. Epstein, L.G. & Zhang, J., 1998. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectivity Unambiguous Event," RCER Working Papers 456, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  24. Kopylov, Igor, 2007. "Subjective probabilities on "small" domains," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 236-265, March.
  25. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Is it Possible to Define Subjective Probabilities in Purely Behavioral Terms? A Comment on Epstein-Zhang (2001)," Economics Working Papers 0067, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  26. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
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