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A more robust definition of multiple priors

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Ghirardato
  • Marciano Siniscalchi

Abstract

This paper provides a multiple-priors representation of ambiguous beliefs à la Ghirardato, Maccheroni, and Marinacci (2004) and Nehring (2002) for any preference that is (i) monotonic, (ii) Bernoullian, i.e. admits an affine utility representation when restricted to constant acts, and (iii) suitably continuous. Monotonicity is the main substantive assumption: we do not require either Certainty Independence or Uncertainty Aversion. We characterize the set of ambiguous beliefs in terms of Clarke-Rockafellar differentials. This allows us to provide an explicit calculation of the set of priors for several recent decision models: multiplier preferences, the smooth ambiguity model, the vector expected utility model, as well as confidence function, variational, general "uncertainty-averse" preferences, and mean-dispersion preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Ghirardato & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2010. "A more robust definition of multiple priors," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 144, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:144
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    File URL: https://www.carloalberto.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/no.144.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klibanoff, Peter & Mukerji, Sujoy & Seo, Kyoungwon & Stanca, Lorenzo, 2022. "Foundations of ambiguity models under symmetry: α-MEU and smooth ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Amarante, M & Ghossoub, M & Phelps, E, 2013. "Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers 12241, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    3. Luciano De Castro & Nicholas C. Yannelis, 2011. "Ambiguity aversion solves the conflict between efficiency and incentive compatibility," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1106, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Peter Klibanoff & Sujoy Mukerji & Kyoungwon Seo, 2014. "Perceived Ambiguity and Relevant Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1945-1978, September.
    5. Luciano Castro & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Ambiguity aversion and trade," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 243-273, October.
    6. ,, 2012. "The ex-ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), September.
    7. Dean, Mark & Ortoleva, Pietro, 2017. "Allais, Ellsberg, and preferences for hedging," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), January.
    8. Massimiliano Amarante & Mario Ghossoub & Edmund Phelps, 2012. "Contracting for Innovation under Knightian Uncertainty," Cahiers de recherche 18-2012, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    9. Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Luciano De Castro, 2010. "Uncertainty, Efficiency and Incentive Compatibility," Discussion Papers 1532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    10. Borie, Dino, 2023. "Purely subjective revealed ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Alain Chateauneuf & Luciano De Castro, 2011. "Ambiguity Aversion and Absence of Trade," Discussion Papers 1535, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    12. Adam Dominiak & Wendelin Schnedler, 2011. "Attitudes toward uncertainty and randomization: an experimental study," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 289-312, October.
    13. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2013. "Ambiguity and robust statistics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 974-1049.
      • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2011. "Ambiguity and Robust Statistics," Working Papers 382, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2011. "Rational preferences under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 341-375, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiple Priors; Upper and Lower Probabilities; Ambiguity; Monotonic Preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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