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Perceived Ambiguity and Relevant Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Klibanoff
  • Sujoy Mukerji
  • Kyoungwon Seo

Abstract

We axiomatize preferences that can be represented by a monotonic aggregation of subjective expected utilities generated by a utility function and some set of i.i.d. probability measures over a product state space, S∞. For such preferences, we define relevant measures, show that they are treated as if they were the only marginals possibly governing the state space, and connect them with the measures appearing in the aforementioned representation. These results allow us to interpret relevant measures as reflecting part of perceived ambiguity, meaning subjective uncertainty about probabilities over states. Under mild conditions, we show that increases or decreases in ambiguity aversion cannot affect the relevant measures. This property, necessary for the conclusion that these measures reflect only perceived ambiguity, distinguishes the set of relevant measures from the leading alternative in the literature. We apply our findings to a number of well‐known models of ambiguity‐sensitive preferences. For each model, we identify the set of relevant measures and the implications of comparative ambiguity aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Klibanoff & Sujoy Mukerji & Kyoungwon Seo, 2014. "Perceived Ambiguity and Relevant Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1945-1978, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:82:y:2014:i:5:p:1945-1978
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA9872
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    Cited by:

    1. Filiz-Ozbay, Emel & Gulen, Huseyin & Masatlioglu, Yusufcan & Ozbay, Erkut Y., 2022. "Comparing ambiguous urns with different sizes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Eric Danan & Thibault Gajdos & Brian Hill & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2016. "Robust Social Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2407-2425, September.
    3. Larry G Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2019. "Ambiguous Correlation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 668-693.
    4. Ellis, Andrew, 2018. "On dynamic consistency in ambiguous games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 241-249.
    5. Chateauneuf, Alain & Faro, José Heleno & Tallon, Jean-Marc & Vergopoulos, Vassili, 2024. "Alpha-maxmin as an aggregation of two selves," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Henkel, Luca, 2024. "Experimental evidence on the relationship between perceived ambiguity and likelihood insensitivity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 312-338.
    7. Epstein, Larry G. & Seo, Kyoungwon, 2015. "Exchangeable capacities, parameters and incomplete theories," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 879-917.
    8. Frick, Mira & Iijima, Ryota & Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2019. "Boolean Representations of Preferences under Ambiguity," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 173, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01415412 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Roee Teper, 2016. "Who is a Bayesian?," Working Paper 5861, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    11. Klibanoff, Peter & Mukerji, Sujoy & Seo, Kyoungwon & Stanca, Lorenzo, 2022. "Foundations of ambiguity models under symmetry: α-MEU and smooth ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    12. Jewitt, Ian & Mukerji, Sujoy, 2017. "Ordering ambiguous acts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 213-267.
    13. Hill, Brian, 2023. "Beyond uncertainty aversion," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 196-222.
    14. Gul, Faruk & Pesendorfer, Wolfgang, 2020. "Calibrated uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yves Le Yaouanq, 2019. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Patrick Schmidt, 2025. "Eliciting Ambiguity with Mixing Bets," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 354-388, February.
    17. Bose, Subir & Daripa, Arup, 2022. "Eliciting ambiguous beliefs using constructed ambiguous acts: Alpha-maxmin," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Eliciting ambiguity with mixing bets," Papers 1902.07447, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    19. Massimiliano Amarante, 2022. "A Unified Framework for Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Decision Making and Inference," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 2721-2742, November.
    20. Madhav Chandrasekher & Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yves Le Yaouanq, 2022. "Dual‐Self Representations of Ambiguity Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1029-1061, May.
    21. Brian Hill, 2023. "Beyond Uncertainty Aversion," Post-Print hal-02428398, HAL.
    22. Claudia Ravanelli & Gregor Svindland, 2019. "Ambiguity sensitive preferences in Ellsberg frameworks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(1), pages 53-89, February.
    23. Ghirardato, Paolo & Pennesi, Daniele, 2020. "A general theory of subjective mixtures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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