A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability
The goal of choice-theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decisionmaker's underlying beliefs (subjective probabilities of events) from their preferences (attitudes toward risk). Classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the Marschak-Samuelson "Independence Axiom" or the Savage "Sure-Thing Principle," which imply that preferences over lotteries conform to the expected utility hypothesis. This paper presents a choice-theoretic derivation of subjective probability in a Savage-type setting of purely subjective uncertainty, which neither assumes nor implies that the decisionmaker's preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected utility hypothesis. Copyright 1992 by The Econometric Society.
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Volume (Year): 60 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
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