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Probabilistic Sophistication, Second Order Stochastic Dominance, and Uncertainty Aversion

  • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio
  • Fabio Maccheroni
  • Massimo Marinacci
  • Luigi Montrucchio

We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance, and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated.

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Paper provided by Collegio Carlo Alberto in its series Carlo Alberto Notebooks with number 174.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:174
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  1. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
  2. Strzalecki, Tomasz, 2011. "Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences," Scholarly Articles 14397610, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Thomas J. Sargent & Riccardo Colacito & Lars P. Hansen & Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Robustness and US Monetary," 2008 Meeting Papers 228, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1994. "Bayes Without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Discussion Papers 1088, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Grant, Simon & Polak, Ben, 2006. "Bayesian beliefs with stochastic monotonicity: An extension of Machina and Schmeidler," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 264-282, September.
  6. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2008. "Risk Measures: Rationality and Diversification," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 100, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  7. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
  8. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2008. "Uncertainty Averse Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 77, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  9. Chateauneuf, Alain & Faro, José Heleno, 2009. "Ambiguity through confidence functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(9-10), pages 535-558, September.
  10. David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
  11. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2010. "Rational Preferences under Ambiguity," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 169, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  12. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
  13. Chew, Soo Hong & Sagi, Jacob S., 2008. "Small worlds: Modeling attitudes toward sources of uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 1-24, March.
  14. Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1990. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Discussion Paper Serie A 306, University of Bonn, Germany.
  15. Massimo Marinacci, 2001. "Probabilistic sophistication and multiple priors," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 08-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  16. Strzalecki, Tomasz, 2011. "Probabilistic Sophistication and Variational Preferences," Scholarly Articles 11352635, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Dekel, Eddie, 1989. "Asset Demands without the Independence Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 163-69, January.
  18. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  19. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
  20. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
  21. Wakker, Peter, 1993. "Clarification of some mathematical misunderstandings about Savage's foundations of statistics, 1954," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-202, February.
  22. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
  23. Kopylov, Igor, 2007. "Subjective probabilities on "small" domains," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 236-265, March.
  24. Aharon Ben-Tal & Marc Teboulle, 1986. "Expected Utility, Penalty Functions, and Duality in Stochastic Nonlinear Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(11), pages 1445-1466, November.
  25. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
  26. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  27. Chew Soo Hong & Jacob S. Sagi, 2006. "Event Exchangeability: Probabilistic Sophistication Without Continuity or Monotonicity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 771-786, 05.
  28. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, 2011. "Objective Rationality and Uncertainty Averse Preferences," Working Papers 413, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  29. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter P., 2000. "Cumulative dominance and probabilistic sophistication," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 191-196, September.
  30. Simon Grant & Ben Polak & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2010. "Second-Order Expected Utility," Working Paper 8340, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  31. William Neilson, 2010. "A simplified axiomatic approach to ambiguity aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 113-124, October.
  32. Grant, Simon, 1995. "Subjective Probability without Monotonicity: Or How Machina's Mom May Also Be Probabilistically Sophisticated," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 159-89, January.
  33. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2008. "Complete Monotone Quasiconcave Duality," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 80, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
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