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Event Exchangeability: Probabilistic Sophistication Without Continuity or Monotonicity

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  • Chew Soo Hong
  • Jacob S. Sagi

Abstract

Building on the Ramsey-de Finetti idea of event exchangeability, we derive a characterization of probabilistic sophistication without requiring any of the various versions of monotonicity, continuity, or comparative likelihood assumptions imposed by Savage (1954), Machina and Schmeidler (1992), and Grant (1995). Our characterization identifies a unique and finitely-additive subjective probability measure over an algebra of events. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Chew Soo Hong & Jacob S. Sagi, 2006. "Event Exchangeability: Probabilistic Sophistication Without Continuity or Monotonicity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 771-786, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:74:y:2006:i:3:p:771-786
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00682.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Burkhard Schipper, 2010. "Revealed Unawareness," Working Papers 105, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Casaca, Paulo & Chateauneuf, Alain & Faro, José Heleno, 2014. "Ignorance and competence in choices under uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 143-150.
    3. King Li, 2011. "Preference towards control in risk taking: Control, no control, or randomize?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 39-63, August.
    4. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2012. "Probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 271-283.
    5. Simon Grant & Jeff Kline & John Quiggin, 2009. "A Matter of Interpretation: Bargaining over Ambiguous Contracts," Risk & Uncertainty Working Papers WPR09_3, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    6. Grant, Simon & Kline, Jeff & Quiggin, John, 2006. "Lost in Translation: Honest Misunderstandings and Ex Post Disputes," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151177, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    7. Tomasz, Strzalecki, 2011. "Probabilistic sophistication and variational preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 2117-2125, September.
    8. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Aurelien Baillon & Laetitia Placido & Peter P. Wakker, 2011. "The Rich Domain of Uncertainty: Source Functions and Their Experimental Implementation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 695-723, April.
    9. Kopylov, Igor, 2010. "Unbounded probabilistic sophistication," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 113-118, September.
    10. Grant, Simon & Kline, J. Jude & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Differential awareness, ambiguity, and incomplete contracts: A model of contractual disputes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 494-504.
    11. Robin Chark & Soo Chew, 2015. "A neuroimaging study of preference for strategic uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 209-227, June.
    12. Dmitri Vinogradov & Yousef Makhlouf, 2017. "Signaling Probabilities in Ambiguity: on the impact of vague news," Working Papers 2017_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Simone Cerroni & Sandra Notaro & W. Douglass Shaw, 2011. "Do Monetary Incentives and Chained Questions Affect the Validity of Risk Estimates Elicited via the Exchangeability Method? An Experimental Investigation," Department of Economics Working Papers 1110, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    14. Chew, Soo Hong & Sagi, Jacob S., 2012. "An inequality measure for stochastic allocations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(4), pages 1517-1544.
    15. Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2012. "A genuine foundation for prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 97-113, October.
    16. repec:eee:jetheo:v:173:y:2018:i:c:p:257-288 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Chew, Soo Hong & Sagi, Jacob S., 2008. "Small worlds: Modeling attitudes toward sources of uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 1-24, March.
    18. Epstein, Larry G. & Halevy, Yoram, 2014. "No Two Experiments are Identical," Microeconomics.ca working papers yoram_halevy-2014-9, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 15 Feb 2017.
    19. Soo Chew & Richard Ebstein & Songfa Zhong, 2012. "Ambiguity aversion and familiarity bias: Evidence from behavioral and gene association studies," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18, February.
    20. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier L'Haridon & Author-Name: Chen Li, 2013. "Learning under ambiguity: An experiment using initial public offerings on a stock market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201331, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    21. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff and Kyoungwon Seo, 2011. "Relevance and Symmetry," Economics Series Working Papers 539, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the exchangeability method," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 201-215.
    23. Cerroni, Simone & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 72-84.

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