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Imperfect Credibility and Robust Monetary Policy

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  • Richard Dennis

Abstract

This paper studies the behavior of a central bank that seeks to conduct policy optimally while having imperfect credibility and harboring doubts about its model. Taking the Smets-Wouters model as the central bank.s approximating model, the paper's main findings are as follows. First, a central bank's credibility can have large consequences for how policy responds to shocks. Second, central banks that have low credibility can benefit from a desire for robustness because this desire motivates the central bank to follow through on policy announcements that would otherwise not be time-consistent. Third, even relatively small departures from perfect credibility can produce important declines in policy performance. Finally, as a technical contribution, the paper develops a numerical procedure to solve the decision-problem facing an imperfectly credible policymaker that seeks robustness

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dennis, 2012. "Imperfect Credibility and Robust Monetary Policy," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-582, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2012-582
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp582.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ippei Fujiwara & Scott Davis, 2017. "Dealing with Time-inconsistency: Inflation Targeting vs. Exchange Rate Targeting," 2017 Meeting Papers 795, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Eurilton Araújo, 2016. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Comovement between Stock Returns and Inflation," Working Papers Series 449, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Richard Dennis & Oleg Kirsanov, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Preferences are Quasi-Hyperbolic," Working Papers 2020_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    5. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    6. J. Scott Davis & Ippei Fujiwara, 2015. "Pegging the exchange rate to gain monetary policy credibility," Globalization Institute Working Papers 224, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Paweł Baranowski & Paweł Gajewski, 2016. "Credible enough? Forward guidance and perceived National Bank of Poland's policy rule," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 89-92, February.
    8. J. Scott Davis & Ippei Fujiwara & Jiao Wang, 2018. "Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1369-1399, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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