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Three types of ambiguity

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  • Hansen, Lars Peter
  • Sargent, Thomas J.

Abstract

For each of three types of ambiguity, we compute a robust Ramsey plan and an associated worst-case probability model. Ex post, ambiguity of type I implies endogenously distorted homogeneous beliefs, while ambiguities of types II and III imply distorted heterogeneous beliefs. Martingales characterize alternative probability specifications and clarify distinctions among the three types of ambiguity. We use recursive formulations of Ramsey problems to impose local predictability of commitment multipliers directly. To reduce the dimension of the state in a recursive formulation, we transform the commitment multiplier to accommodate the heterogeneous beliefs that arise with ambiguity of types II and III. Our formulations facilitate comparisons of the consequences of these alternative types of ambiguity.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Three types of ambiguity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 422-445.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:59:y:2012:i:5:p:422-445
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.06.003
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    1. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2004. "Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2367-2397, December.
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    11. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis, Richard, 2014. "Imperfect credibility and robust monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 218-234.
    2. repec:eee:ecolet:v:155:y:2017:i:c:p:9-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kwon, Hyosung & Miao, Jianjun, 2017. "Three types of robust Ramsey problems in a linear-quadratic framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 211-231.
    4. Esther Hauk & Andrea Lanteri & Albert Marcet, 2016. "Optimal Policy with General Signal Extraction," Working Papers 932, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Jianjun Miao & Alejandro Rivera, 2016. "Robust Contracts in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1405-1440, July.
    6. Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios Yannacopoulos, 2018. "Spatially Structured Deep Uncertainty, Robust Control, and Climate Change Policies," DEOS Working Papers 1807, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2015. "Four types of ignorance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 97-113.
    8. Athanasios Yannacopoulos & Anastasios Xepapadeas, "undated". "Climate Change Policy under Spatially Structured Ambiguity: Hot Spots and the Precautionary Principle," DEOS Working Papers 1332, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    9. Balbás, Alejandro & Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Raquel, 2016. "Good deals and benchmarks in robust portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 666-678.

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