Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment
In a Markov decision problem with hidden state variables, a posterior distribution serves as a state variable and Bayes' law under an approximating model gives its law of motion. A decision maker expresses fear that his model is misspecified by surrounding it with a set of alternatives that are nearby when measured by their expected log likelihood ratios (entropies). Martingales represent alternative models. A decision maker constructs a sequence of robust decision rules by pretending that a sequence of minimizing players choose increments to a martingale and distortions to the prior over the hidden state. A risk sensitivity operator induces robustness to perturbations of the approximating model conditioned on the hidden state. Another risk sensitivity operator induces robustness to the prior distribution over the hidden state. We use these operators to extend the approach of Hansen and Sargent (1995) to problems that contain hidden states. The worst case martingale is overdetermined, expressing an intertemporal inconsistency of worst case beliefs about the hidden state, but not about observables.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008.
"In Search of Distress Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2005. "In Searach of Distress Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2081, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2006. "In Search of Distress Risk," NBER Working Papers 12362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Michael Funke & Sebastian Weber & Jörg Döpke & Sean Holly, 2005.
"The Cross-Sectional Dynamics of German Business Cycles: A Bird´s Eye View,"
Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers
20508, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Döpke, Jörg & Funke, Michael & Holly, Sean & Weber, Sebastian, 2005. "The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Falko Fecht & Kevin X. D. Huang & Antoine Martin, 2004.
"Financial intermediaries, markets, and growth,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 04-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Falko Fecht & Kevin X. D. Huang & Antoine Martin, 2004. "Financial intermediaries, markets, and growth," Working Papers 04-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Falko Fecht & Kevin X.D. Huang & Antoine Martin, 2007. "Financial Intermediaries, Markets, and Growth," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0714, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Fecht, Falko & Huang, Kevin & Martin, Antoine, 2005. "Financial intermediaries, markets and growth," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Falko Fecht & Kevin Huang, 2004. "Financial intermediaries, markets, and growth," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 419, Econometric Society.
- Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Koetter, Michael & Bos, Jaap W. B. & Heid, Frank & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Kolari, James W. & Porath, Daniel, 2005.
"Accounting for distress in bank mergers,"
Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies
2005,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:136:y:2007:i:1:p:1-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.