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The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view

  • Döpke, Jörg
  • Funke, Michael
  • Holly, Sean
  • Weber, Sebastian

We establish some stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the level of the firm. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistic covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we analyse the reallocation across individual producers and, in turn, the connection of this reallocation to aggregate business cycles. The empirical results indicate a pronounced heterogeneity of real sale changes across firms. Moreover, the distribution of growth rates of firm's real sales is influenced by business cycle conditions. In particular, the cross-section skewness of real sales changes is strongly counter-cyclical. The results confirm most of the findings for the UK and the US by Higson et al. (2002, 2004) and are, therefore, robust stylised facts of the business cycle.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,23.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4217
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  1. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P. & S. Platis, 2001. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0114, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  3. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  4. Moshe Buchinsky, 1998. "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 88-126.
  5. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S., 2002. "Further Evidence On The Relationship Between Firm Investment And Financial Status," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Bronwyn H. Hall, 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," NBER Working Papers 1965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1991. "Heterogeneity and Output Fluctuations in a Dynamic Menu-Cost Economy," NBER Working Papers 3729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1994. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 4768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 653-58, June.
  10. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
  11. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, . "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel," Discussion Papers 01/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
  12. Caplin, Andrew S & Spulber, Daniel F, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 703-25, November.
  13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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