IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdp1/4233.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Short-run and long-run comovement of GDP and some expenditure aggregates in Germany, France and Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Knetsch, Thomas A.

Abstract

The paper presents empirical work on short-run and long-run comovement between the German, French and Italian aggregates of private consumption, business investment, exports, imports, GDP, and changes in inventories. In country-specific data sets, cointegration analyses are carried out both to identify long-run economic relationships and to remove the trend components from the nonstationary series. Analytically, this is done by reparametrizing the vector error correction model in its common trends representation. The resulting (Beveridge-Nelson) trend and cycle components as well as the series of changes in inventories are analyzed with a focus on synchronicity. To measure crosscountry comovement at different frequencies, "cohesion", a summary statistic developed by Croux et al. [2001], is applied. Sampling variability and parameter uncertainty are captured by bootstrapped confidence intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Knetsch, Thomas A., 2005. "Short-run and long-run comovement of GDP and some expenditure aggregates in Germany, France and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,39, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4233
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19624/1/200539dkp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    2. Falko Fecht & Kevin X. D. Huang & Antoine Martin, 2008. "Financial Intermediaries, Markets, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 701-720, June.
    3. Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles: why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June.
    5. Koetter, M. & Bos, J.W.B. & Heid, F. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M. & Porath, D., 2007. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3200-3217, October.
    6. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2002. "Testing for stationarity with a break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 63-99, May.
    7. Michael Funke & Sebastian Weber & Jörg Döpke & Sean Holly, 2005. "The Cross-Sectional Dynamics of German Business Cycles: A Bird´s Eye View," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20508, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    8. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:dgr:rugsom:12009-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & Norden, Simon van, 2012. "On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision," Research Report 12009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    3. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Koetter, Michael, 2005. "Evaluating the German bank merger wave," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Liebig, Thilo & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Incorporating prediction and estimation risk in point-in-time credit portfolio models," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Trade balances of the central and east European EU member states and the role of foreign direct investment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,41, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Frey, Rainer & Hussinger, Katrin, 2006. "The role of technology in M&As: a firm-level comparison of cross-border and domestic deals," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,45, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2007. "Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-27, September.
    7. Fecht, Falko & Grüner, Hans Peter, 2005. "Financial integration and systemic risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Raabe, Katharina, 2006. "Industries and the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,48, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Falko Fecht & Hans Grüner, 2008. "Limits to International Banking Consolidation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 651-666, November.
    10. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    11. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
    12. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Sims, Christopher A., 2005. "Rational inattention: a research agenda," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Jäckle Robert & Wamser Georg, 2010. "Going Multinational: What are the Effects on Home-Market Performance?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 188-207, May.
    16. Evelyn Hayden & Daniel Porath & Natalja Westernhagen, 2007. "Does Diversification Improve the Performance of German Banks? Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 123-140, December.
    17. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Koetter, Michael & Karmann, Alexander & Fiorentino, Elisabetta, 2006. "The cost efficiency of German banks: a comparison of SFA and DEA," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2005. "Umstellung der deutschen VGR auf Vorjahrespreisbasis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2007. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 527-549.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; trend-cycle decomposition; cohesion; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4233. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.