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Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves

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Abstract

This paper studies the quantitative implications of the interaction between robust control and stochastic volatility for key asset pricing phenomena. We present an equilibrium term structure model with a representative agent and an output growth process that is conditionally heteroskedastic. The agent does not know the true model of the economy and chooses optimal policies that are robust to model misspecification. The choice of robust policies greatly amplifies the effect of conditional heteroskedasticity in consumption growth, improving the model’s ability to explain asset prices. In a robust control framework, stochastic volatility in consumption growth generates both a state-dependent market price of model uncertainty and a stochastic market price of risk. We estimate the model using data from the bond and equity markets, as well as consumption data. We show that the model is consistent with key empirical regularities that characterize the bond and equity markets. We also characterize empirically the set of models the robust representative agent entertains, and show that this set is ?small?. That is, it is statistically difficult to distinguish between models in this set.

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  • Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  • Handle: RePEc:iea:carech:0802
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    File URL: http://www.hec.ca/iea/cahiers/2008/iea0802_nvincent.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    2. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    3. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2018. "Doubts and variability: A robust perspective on exotic consumption series," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 689-712.
    4. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    5. Hisashi Nakamura & Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2008. "Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Recursive Preferences in Continuous Time," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 15(3), pages 273-305, December.
    6. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Matthys, Felix, 2019. "Robust consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices can jump," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1-56.
    7. Frank Fabozzi & Dashan Huang & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Robust portfolios: contributions from operations research and finance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 191-220, April.
    8. Xu, Yuan, 2015. "Robustness to model uncertainty and the nominal term premium puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 124-137.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curves; Market price of Uncertainty; Robust control.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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