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Ambiguity and Asset Markets

  • Larry G. Epstein
  • Martin Schneider

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215
    Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

The Ellsberg paradox suggests that people's behavior is different in risky situations—when they are given objective probabilities—from their behavior in ambiguous situations—when they are not told the odds (as is typical in financial markets). Such behavior is inconsistent with subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, the standard model of choice under uncertainty in financial economics. This article reviews models of ambiguity aversion. It shows that such models—in particular, the multiple-priors model of Gilboa and Schmeidler—have implications for portfolio choice and asset pricing that are very different from those of SEU and that help to explain otherwise puzzling features of the data.

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File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-financial-120209-133940
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Article provided by Annual Reviews in its journal Annual Review of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 315-346

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Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:2:y:2010:p:315-346
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  1. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005.
  2. Mokerji, S. & Tallon, J.M., 2000. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Absence of Indexed Debt," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 2000.53, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  3. Epstein, Larry G. & Miao, Jianjun, 2003. "A two-person dynamic equilibrium under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1253-1288, May.
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  7. Campbell, John & Viceira, Luis, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," Scholarly Articles 3163266, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  13. Mukerji, S. & Tallon, J.-M., 1999. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Financial Markets," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 1999-28, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  14. Patrick Gagliardini & Paolo Porchia & Fabio Trojani, 2007. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-29, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
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  17. Mukerji, Sujoy & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2003. "Ellsberg's two-color experiment, portfolio inertia and ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 299-316, June.
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  20. Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Rustichini, Aldo, 2006. "Dynamic variational preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 4-44, May.
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  23. Thibault Gajdos & Takashi Hayashi & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2006. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v06081, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  24. David Ahn & Syngjoo Choi & Douglas Gale & Shachar Kariv, 2008. "Estimating Ambiguity Aversion in a Portfolio Choice Experiment," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001989, David K. Levine.
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  26. Trojani, Fabio & Vanini, Paolo, 2002. "A note on robustness in Merton's model of intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 423-435, March.
  27. David A. Chapman & Valery Polkovnichenko, 2009. "First-Order Risk Aversion, Heterogeneity, and Asset Market Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1863-1887, 08.
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  29. Baillon, Aurélien & Driesen, Bram & Wakker, Peter P., 2012. "Relative concave utility for risk and ambiguity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 481-489.
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