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International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty

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  • Pierpaolo Benigno
  • Salvatore Nisticò

Abstract

This paper proposes an explanation of the international home bias in equity based on ambiguity aversion. Doubts imply an additional hedging motif driven by the interaction between real exchange rate risk and ambiguity aversion. What matters is the long-run as opposed to the short-run risk. Domestic equity is a good hedge with respect to long-run real exchange rate risk even when bonds are traded. The higher is the degree of ambiguity aversion, the stronger is the home bias. We identify the degree of ambiguity aversion with detection error probabilities and show that our framework is able to explain a large share of the observed US home bias, as well as other stylized facts on US cross-border asset holdings. Without doubts, a standard open-economy macroeconomic model would be unsuccessful along all these dimensions. An older version of this paper is available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w14734.rev0.pdf to NBER subscribers and those in domains eligible for free downloads. Individual purchasers of papers are directed to email orders@nber.org or to call 617 588-1405 to purchase the older version.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2009. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 14734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14734
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:red:issued:13-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    3. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-27.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Illeditsch, PK & Ganguli, J & Condie, S, 2017. "Information Inertia (Working Paper)," Economics Discussion Papers 15615, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    6. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    7. Gianluca Benigno & Hande Küçük, 2012. "Portfolio allocation and international risk sharing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 535-565, May.
    8. repec:esx:essedp:719 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    10. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 247-309.
    11. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
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    14. repec:esx:essedp:770 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Rabitsch, Katrin & Stepanchuk, Serhiy & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2015. "International portfolios: A comparison of solution methods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 404-422.
    16. De Paoli, Bianca & Küçük, Hande, 2015. "News shocks, monetary policy, and foreign currency positions," Staff Reports 750, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Alexandra M. Tabova, 2013. "Portfolio diversification and the cross-sectional distribution of foreign investment," International Finance Discussion Papers 1091, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Ganguli, J & Condie, S & Illeditsch, PK, 2012. "Information Inertia," Economics Discussion Papers 5628, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    19. Michael B Devereux, 2013. "Inflation and financial globalisation," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 119-128 Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Ferrière, Axelle & Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2016. "Fiscal austerity in ambiguous times," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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