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Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds

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  • Ulrich, Maxim

Abstract

Variations in trend inflation are the main driver for variations in the nominal yield curve. According to empirical data, investors observe a set of empirical models that could all have generated the time-series for trend inflation. This set has been large and volatile during the 1970s and early 1980s and small during the 1990s. I show that log utility together with Knightian uncertainty about trend inflation can explain the term premium in U.S. Treasury bonds. The equilibrium has two inflation premiums, an inflation risk premium and a Knightian inflation ambiguity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:60:y:2013:i:2:p:295-309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Trojani, Fabio & Wiehenkamp, Christian & Wrampelmeyer, Jan, 2014. "Ambiguity and Reality," Working Papers on Finance 1418, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Yaniv Konchitchki & Yan Luo & Mary L. Z. Ma & Feng Wu, 2016. "Accounting-based downside risk, cost of capital, and the macroeconomy," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-36, March.
    3. Izhakian, Yehuda & Yermack, David, 2017. "Risk, ambiguity, and the exercise of employee stock options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 65-85.
    4. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:668-688 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yehuda Izhakian & David Yermack & Jaime F. Zender, 2016. "Ambiguity and the Tradeoff Theory of Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 22870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Horváth, Ferenc, 2017. "Essays on robust asset pricing," Other publications TiSEM e54d7b33-1f27-4b0e-9f84-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Antoniou, Constantinos & Harris, Richard D.F. & Zhang, Ruogu, 2015. "Ambiguity aversion and stock market participation: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 57-70.
    8. repec:khe:scajes:v:3:y:2017:i:3:p:38-46 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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