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No-arbitrage Taylor rules

  • Andrew Ang
  • Sen Dong
  • Monika Piazzesi

We estimate Taylor (1993) rules and identify monetary policy shocks using no-arbitrage pricing techniques. Long-term interest rates are risk-adjusted expected values of future short rates and thus provide strong over-identifying restrictions about the policy rule used by the Federal Reserve. The no-arbitrage framework also accommodates backward-looking and forward-looking Taylor rules. We find that inflation and GDP growth account for over half of the time-variation of yield levels and we attribute almost all of the movements in the term spread to inflation. Taylor rules estimated with no-arbitrage restrictions differ substantially from Taylor rules estimated by OLS and monetary policy shocks identified with no-arbitrage techniques are less volatile than their OLS counterparts.

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Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2005:x:14
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