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The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • S. Boragan Aruoba

Abstract

We estimate a model that summarizes the yield curve using latent factors (specifically, level, slope, and curvature) and also includes observable macroeconomic variables (specifically, real activity, inflation, and the monetary policy instrument). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. We find strong evidence of the effects of macro variables on future movements in the yield curve and evidence for a reverse influence as well. We also relate our results to the expectations hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10616
    Note: EFG ME AP
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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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