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Term structure estimation without using latent factors

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  • Greg Duffee

    (Haas School of Business University of California at Berkeley)

Abstract

A combination of observed and unobserved (latent) factors capture term structure dynamics. Information about these dynamics is extracted from observed factors without specifying or estimating any of the parameters associated with latent factors. Estimation is equivalent to fitting the moment conditions of a set of regressions, where no-arbitrage imposes cross equation restrictions on the coefficients. The methodology is applied to the dynamics of inflation and yields. Outside of the disinflationary period of 1979 through 1983, short-term rates move one for one with expected inflation, while bond risk premia are insensitive to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
    4. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
    5. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
    6. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2011. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 429-457.
    7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
    8. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, March.
    9. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
    10. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2008. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1160-1175, June.
    11. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    12. Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
    13. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    14. Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Lotfi, 2009. "Conditional volatility in affine term-structure models: Evidence from Treasury and swap markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 288-318, March.
    15. Jingnan Chen & Mark D. Flood & Richard B. Sowers, 2015. "Measuring the Unmeasurable: An Application of Uncertainty Quantification to Financial Portfolios," Working Papers 15-19, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    16. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "China's official rates and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 996-1007, May.
    17. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
    18. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
    19. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2008. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-92, March.
    20. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    21. Huseyin Kaya & M. Ege Yazgan, 2011. "Has 'inflation targeting' increased the predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from Turkish experience?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(20), pages 1539-1547.
    22. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
    23. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
    24. Jiang, George & Yan, Shu, 2009. "Linear-quadratic term structure models - Toward the understanding of jumps in interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 473-485, March.
    25. Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa & Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto, 2023. "A robust model for the term structure of interest rates: some applications in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1255, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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