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New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure

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  • Geert Bekaert
  • Seonghoon Cho
  • Antonio Moreno

Abstract

This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with an unobservable time-varying inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from macro and term structure data. We obtain large and significant estimates of the Phillips curve and real interest rate response parameters. Our model also delivers strong contemporaneous responses of the entire term structure to various macroeconomic shocks. The inflation target dominates the variation in the "level factor" whereas the monetary policy shocks dominate the variation in the "slope and curvature factors".

Suggested Citation

  • Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11340
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    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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