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Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models

  • Qiang Dai

    (New York University,)

  • Kenneth J. Singleton

    (Stanford University)

This paper explores the structural differences and relative goodness-of-fits of affine term structure models (ATSMs). Within the family of ATSMs there is a trade-off between flexibility in modeling the conditional correlations and volatilities of the risk factors. This trade-off is formalized by our classification of "N"-factor affine family into "N"+ 1 non-nested subfamilies of models. Specializing to three-factor ATSMs, our analysis suggests, based on theoretical considerations and empirical evidence, that some subfamilies of ATSMs are better suited than others to explaining historical interest rate behavior. Copyright The American Finance Association 2000.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2000)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 1943-1978

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:5:p:1943-1978
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  1. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-9, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  2. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
  4. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1997. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor in Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 6325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
  7. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 4676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
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