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Term structure modelling with observable state variables

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  • Huse, Cristian

Abstract

This paper proposes and implements a parsimonious three-factor model of the term structure whose dynamics is driven uniquely by observable state variables. This approach allows comparing alternative views on the way state variables – macroeconomic variables, in particular – influence the yield curve dynamics, avoids curse of dimensionality problems, and provides more reliable inference by using both the cross-sectional and the time series dimension of the data. I simulate the small-sample properties of the procedure and conduct in- and out-of-sample studies using a comprehensive set of US data. I show that even a parsimonious model where the level, slope and curvature factors of the term structure are driven by, respectively, inflation, monetary policy and economic activity consistently outperforms the (latent-variable) benchmark model in an out-of-sample study.

Suggested Citation

  • Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:12:p:3240-3252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.05.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.
    2. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2010. "Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 342-350, December.
    3. repec:sbe:breart:v:37:y:2017:i:1:a:57700 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    5. repec:sbe:breart:v:35:y:2015:i:1:a:17002 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Almeida, Caio & Gomes, Romeu & Leite, André & Vicente, José, 2008. "Movimentos da Estrutura a Termo e Critérios de Minimização do Erro de Previsão em um Modelo Paramétrico Exponencial," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 62(4), December.
    7. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    8. Michiel De Pooter, 2007. "Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
    10. Nunes, Clemens Vinicius & Doi, Jonas & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2017. "Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts and Inflation Risk Premia in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(1), May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; Interest rates; Yield curve estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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