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Affine General Equilibrium Models

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  • Bjørn Eraker

    (Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

Abstract

No-arbitrage models are extremely flexible modelling tools but often lack economic motivation. This paper describes an equilibrium consumption-based CAPM framework based on Epstein-Zin preferences, which produces analytic pricing formulas for stocks and bonds under the assumption that macro growth rates follow affine processes. This allows the construction of equilibrium pricing formulas while maintaining the same flexibility of state dynamics as in no-arbitrage models. In demonstrating the approach, the paper presents a model that incorporates inflation such that asset prices are nominal. The model takes advantage of the possibility of non-Gaussian shocks and model macroeconomic uncertainty as a jump-diffusion process. This leads to endogenous stock market crashes as stock prices drop to reflect a higher expected rate of return in response to sudden increases in risk. The nominal yield curve in this model has a positive slope if expected inflation growth negatively impacts real growth. This model also produces asset prices that are consistent with observed data, including a substantial equity premium at moderate levels of risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:54:y:2008:i:12:p:2068-2080
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0796
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    Cited by:

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    2. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
    3. Roméo Tédongap, 2015. "Consumption Volatility and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 367-405.
    4. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2012. "Dynamic jump intensities and risk premiums: Evidence from S&P500 returns and options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 447-472.
    5. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.
    6. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Pierre Chaigneau & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2020. "Downside risk-neutral probabilities," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 8(1), pages 65-77, April.
    8. Wayne E. Ferson & Suresh K. Nallareddy & Biqin Xie, 2012. "The "Out of Sample" Performance of Long-run Risk Models," NBER Working Papers 17848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2019. "The information content of forward moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 527-541.
    10. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth," Discussion Papers 16/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, René & Meddahi, Nour & Tédongap, Roméo, 2010. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion, Long Run Volatility Risk and Asset Prices," IDEI Working Papers 636, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    12. Moreno, Manuel & Serrano, Pedro & Stute, Winfried, 2011. "Statistical properties and economic implications of jump-diffusion processes with shot-noise effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 656-664, November.
    13. Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2014. "Lévy jump risk: Evidence from options and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-90.
    14. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Campbell, John Y. & Sunderam, Adi & Viceira, Luis M., 2017. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 263-301, September.
    16. Benzoni, Luca & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S., 2011. "Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 552-573, September.
    17. Malkhozov, Aytek, 2014. "Asset prices in affine real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 180-193.
    18. Ferson, Wayne & Nallareddy, Suresh & Xie, Biqin, 2013. "The “out-of-sample” performance of long run risk models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 537-556.
    19. Marco Bonomo & René Garcia & Nour Meddahi & Roméo Tédongap, 2011. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion, Long-run Volatility Risk, and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 82-122.
    20. Akira Yamazaki, 2017. "Equilibrium Equity Price With Optimal Dividend Policy," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-28, March.
    21. Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2016. "In search of the determinants of European asset market comovements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-117.
    22. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Equilibrium variance risk premium in a cost-free production economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 42-60.

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