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Structural Laplace Transform and Compound Autoregressive Models

Author

Listed:
  • Serge Darolles

    () (DRM-Finance - DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christian Gourieroux

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Joann Jasiak

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics [Canada] - York University [Toronto])

Abstract

This paper presents a new general class of compound autoregressive (Car) models for non-Gaussian time series. The distinctive feature of the class is that Car models are specified by means of the conditional Laplace transforms. This approach allows for simple derivation of the ergodicity conditions and ensures the existence of forecasting distributions in closed form, at any horizon. The last property is of particular interest for applications to finance and economics that investigate the term structure of variables and/or of their nonlinear transforms. The Car class includes a number of time-series models that already exist in the literature, as well as new models introduced in this paper. Their applications are illustrated by examples of portfolio management, term structure and extreme risk analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge Darolles & Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2006. "Structural Laplace Transform and Compound Autoregressive Models," Post-Print halshs-00678240, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00678240
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00479.x
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00678240
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tédongap, 2014. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-269.
    2. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
    3. Timothy M. Christensen, 2014. "Nonparametric identification of positive eigenfunctions," CeMMAP working papers CWP37/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Gourieroux, Christian & Sufana, Razvan, 2011. "Discrete time Wishart term structure models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 815-824, June.
    5. Gouriéroux, Christian, 2003. "Économétrie de la finance : l’exemple du risque de crédit," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 399-418, Décembre.
    6. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2007. "Econometric specification of stochastic discount factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 509-530, February.
    7. Alain Monfort & Olivier Féron, 2012. "Joint econometric modeling of spot electricity prices, forwards and options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 217-256, October.
    8. Bruno Feunou & Roméo Tédongap, 2012. "A Stochastic Volatility Model With Conditional Skewness," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 576-591, July.
    9. H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
    10. Gagliardini, Patrick & Gouriéroux, Christian, 2013. "Correlated risks vs contagion in stochastic transition models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2241-2269.
    11. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.P., 2014. "Pricing default events: Surprise, exogeneity and contagion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 397-411.
    12. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
    13. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2008. "Quadratic stochastic intensity and prospective mortality tables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 174-184, August.
    14. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2012. "Asset pricing with Second-Order Esscher Transforms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1678-1687.
    15. Peter D Spencer, "undated". "Coupon Bond Valuation with a Non-Affine Discount Yield Model," Discussion Papers 03/16, Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Serge Darolles & Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2012. "Survival of Hedge Funds : Frailty vs Contagion," Working Papers 2012-36, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Tore Selland Kleppe & Hans J. Skaug, 2008. "Building and Fitting Non-Gaussian Latent Variable Models via the Moment-Generating Function," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 35(4), pages 664-676.
    18. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
    19. Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
    20. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J. & Sufana, R., 2009. "The Wishart Autoregressive process of multivariate stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 167-181, June.
    21. P. Gagliardini & C. Gourieroux, 2008. "Duration time-series models with proportional hazard," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 74-124, January.
    22. repec:wsi:qjfxxx:v:07:y:2017:i:04:n:s2010139217500112 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:bfr:rueban:2017:52 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    25. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.

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