IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hbs/wpaper/14-031.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Author

Listed:
  • John Y. Campbell

    () (Harvard University)

  • Carolin Pflueger

    () (University of British Columbia)

  • Luis M. Viceira

    () (Harvard Business School, Finance Unit)

Abstract

Our new model of consumption-based habit formation preferences generates loglinear, homoscedastic macroeconomic dynamics and time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free interest rate takes the form of an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. Estimating the model separately for 1979-2001 and 2001-2011 explains why the exposure of US Treasury bonds to the stock market changed from positive to negative. A change in the comovement between inflation and the output gap explains changing bond risks, but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model.

Suggested Citation

  • John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:14-031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/pages/download.aspx?name=14-031.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    2. Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Zin, Stanley E., 2013. "Identifying Taylor rules in macro-finance models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    4. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    5. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 126-162, October.
    7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    8. Francisco Palomino, 2012. "Bond Risk Premiums and Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 19-40, January.
    9. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
    10. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803.
    11. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    12. Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 201-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    14. Owen Lamont, 1998. "Earnings and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1563-1587, October.
    15. Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments Are Weak," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 797-810, August.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    17. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    18. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    19. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-350, August.
    20. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    21. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    22. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2011. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
    23. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2011. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 429-457.
    24. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
    25. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    26. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    27. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E. Zin & Irina Zviadadze, 2013. "Identifying monetary policy in macro-finance models," NBER Working Papers 19360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    29. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    30. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1, June.
    31. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    32. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    33. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    34. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
    35. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    36. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    37. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    38. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    39. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    40. Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2007. "Realized bond—stock correlation: Macroeconomic announcement effects," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 439-469, May.
    41. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    42. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    43. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2011. "The forward method as a solution refinement in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 257-272, March.
    44. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    45. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    46. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    47. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, March.
    48. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    49. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    50. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
    51. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    53. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2007. "Habit Formation and Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 3009-3063, December.
    54. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    55. Barsky, Robert B, 1989. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1132-1145, December.
    56. Li, Erica X.N. & Palomino, Francisco, 2014. "Nominal rigidities, asset returns, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 210-225.
    57. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
    58. Evans, George W., 1986. "Selection criteria for models with non-uniqueness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 147-157, September.
    59. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    60. Laurence Ball & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1990. "Inflation and Uncertainty at Long and Short Horizons," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 215-254.
    61. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
    62. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    63. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    64. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
    65. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    66. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    67. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    68. Jianping Mei & Hsien-Hsing Liao (ed.), 2003. "Asset Pricing," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 4647, June.
    69. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    70. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
    71. George Evans, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-1233.
    72. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2013. "What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(4), pages 682-746.
    73. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    74. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    75. Smith, Josephine M. & Taylor, John B., 2009. "The term structure of policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 907-917, October.
    76. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Economists' advice
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2014-06-01 14:27:17

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erica Perego, 2018. "Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area," Documents de recherche 18-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    2. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Wu, Shu, 2017. "Federal Reserve credibility and the term structure of interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 364-389.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu, 2017. "Effects of capital flow on the equity and housing markets in Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 332-349, August.
    4. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2016. "Macro-Finance Determinants of the Long-Run Stock–Bond Correlation: The DCC-MIDAS Specification," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(3), pages 617-642.
    5. Dufour, Alfonso & Stancu, Andrei & Varotto, Simone, 2017. "The equity-like behaviour of sovereign bonds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-46.
    6. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    7. Di Maggio, Marco & Kermani, Amir & Majlesi, Kaveh, 2018. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Working Paper Series 1198, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Mohsan Bilal, 2017. "Zeroing in: Asset Pricing at the Zero Lower Bound," 2017 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
    11. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2016. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 22839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco J. Palomino, 2016. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields, and Real Bond Yields," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 177-192, June.
    15. Petar Sabtchevsky & Paul Whelan & Andrea Vedolin & Philippe Mueller, 2017. "Variance Risk Premia on Stocks and Bonds," 2017 Meeting Papers 1161, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Zhao, Guihai, 2017. "Confidence, bond risks, and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 668-688.
    17. Taeyoung Doh & Shu Wu, 2016. "The Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity and Interest Rates," Research Working Paper RWP 16-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 30 Nov 2016.
    18. Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Refining linear rational expectations models and equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 160-169.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:14-031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HBS). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/harbsus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.