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Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?

  • Shiller, Robert J.
  • Beltratti, Andrea E.

Real stock prices seem to overreact to changes in long-term interest rates. That is, real stock prices drop when long-term interest rates rise (and rise when they fall) more than would be implied by a rational expectationspresent value model where expectations are based on a vector autoregression. This overreaction is not associated with any overreaction to changes in the short-run inflation rate. Over the last century real stock prices have shown little reaction to changes in inflation rates, and according to the model they should show little reaction. These conclusions were reached from an analysis of annual data in the United States 1871 to 1989 and the United Kingdom 1918 to 1989.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 25-46

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:30:y:1992:i:1:p:25-46
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," NBER Working Papers 2047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Campbell, John, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207696, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  7. Bulkley, George & Tonks, Ian, 1989. "Are U.K. Stock Prices Excessively Volatile? Trading Rules and Variance Bounds Tests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1083-98, December.
  8. Shiller, Robert J, 1988. "The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 1089-92, October.
  9. Andrea E. Beltratti & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 970, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Kleidon, Allan W, 1988. "The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality: Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 1093-96, October.
  11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
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