IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v56y2009i7p907-917.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The term structure of policy rules

Author

Listed:
  • Smith, Josephine M.
  • Taylor, John B.

Abstract

A formula is derived that links the coefficients of the monetary policy rule for the short-term interest rate to the coefficients of the implied affine equations for long-term interest rates. The formula predicts that an increase in the coefficients in the monetary policy rule will lead to an increase in the coefficients in the affine equations. Empirical evidence for such a prediction is provided. The curve of the response coefficients by maturity is also predicted by the formula. The formula's predictive accuracy and its closed form make it a useful tool for studying the policy implications of embedding no-arbitrage affine theories into macro models.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Josephine M. & Taylor, John B., 2009. "The term structure of policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 907-917, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:7:p:907-917
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-3932(09)00122-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco J. Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 305-326.
    4. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    5. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1996. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1183-1209.
    8. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    9. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    10. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 247-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No‐Arbitrage and Macro‐Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 395-422, March.
    12. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    13. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    14. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josephine M. Smith & John B. Taylor, 2007. "The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 13635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2008. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-92, March.
    3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    4. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
    5. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    6. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 389-425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. A Piergallini & G Rodano, 2017. "A Simple Explanation of the Taylor Rule," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 22(1), pages 25-35, March.
    8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    9. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
    10. Haitao Li & Tao Li & Cindy Yu, 2013. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules with Switching Regimes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2278-2294, October.
    11. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    12. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    14. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    15. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    16. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
    17. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    18. Patra, Michael Debabrata & Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Gangadaran, Sivaramakrishnan, 2017. "The quest for optimal monetary policy rules in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 349-370.
    19. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    20. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:7:p:907-917. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.