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An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia

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  • Andreasen, Martin M.

Abstract

This paper develops a DSGE model which is shown to explain variation in the nominal and real term structure as well as inflation surveys and four macrovariables for the UK economy. The model is estimated based on a third-order approximation to allow for time-varying term premia. We find a fall in nominal term premia during the 1990s which mainly is caused by lower inflation risk premia. A structural decomposition further shows that this fall is driven by negative preference shocks, lower fixed production costs, positive investment shocks, and a more aggressive response to inflation by the Bank of England.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:8:p:1656-1674
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.09.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Jun 2015.
    4. Konstantinos Theodoridis & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 101219932, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    5. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2015. "UK Term Structure Decompositions at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 755, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2014. "Risk Matters: A Comment," CESifo Working Paper Series 4793, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco J. Palomino, 2016. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium," MPRA Paper 43933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andreasen Martin M. & Zabczyk Pawel, 2015. "Efficient bond price approximations in non-linear equilibrium-based term structure models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-33, February.
    11. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Eric Swanson, 2013. "Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia," 2013 Meeting Papers 1137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2014. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4231-4239, December.
    14. Marco Casiraghi & Marcello Miccoli, 2015. "Risk-adjusted expectations of inflation," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 286, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Lopez, Pier & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Vazquez-Grande, Francisco, 2015. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market price of risk; Non-linear filtering; Quantity of risk; Epstein–Zin–Weil preferences; Third-order perturbation;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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