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(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia

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  • Kliem, Martin
  • Meyer-Gohde, Alexander

Abstract

We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and financial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with real risk two times more important than inflation risk. The model enables us to address salient questions about the effects of monetary policy on the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy can have sizeable and differing effects on nominal and real risk premia, rationalizing many opposing findings in the empirical literature.

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  • Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:302017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; Bayesian estimation; Term structure; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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